Gavin Lux favored to win NL Rookie of the Year

The Los angles Dodgers could add a record 19th National League Rookie of the Year award to their overflowing trophy room this fall if Gavin Lux has anything to say about it.

The 22-year-old middle infielder is heavily favored to win the award in 2020 according to oddsmakers at BetAmerica, who have given Lux +350 odds to come out on top. Rounding out the odds board are Colorado Rockies infielder Brendan Rodgers, San Diego Padres pitcher MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals third baseman Carter Kieboom, and Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Dustin May.

Let's examine the pros and cons for betting the house on Lux.

Pro: Gavin Lux dominated the minors

Lux was Baseball America’s 2019 Minor League Player of the Year, and it wasn’t even close. The Kenosha, Wisconsin native slashed .347/.421/.607 in stops with Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Oklahoma City, and set career highs in hits (159), runs (99), home runs (26), and RBI (76). His phenomenal play earned him a call up to L.A. on Sept. 2, where he proceeded to collect two hits and score three runs in his big league debut.

Con: Playing time may be scarce

Lux was “The Man” in the minor leagues, but he’s just one of many options at second base for the Dodgers. Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, and Enrique Hernandez are all capable of holding down the position and Dave Roberts won’t hesitate to call upon them if Lux struggles early.

Pro: Lux excelled on baseball’s biggest stage

Lux made history on Oct. 3, 2019 when he became the youngest player ever to hit a pinch-hit home run in the postseason. If he came through in the clutch against the best in baseball, just imagine what he can do against the Miami Marlins in mid-July.

Con: Lux could remain in the minor leagues

As talented as Lux is, there’s no guarantee he’ll be on the Dodgers’ roster when the club finally plays its first game of the season. Roberts was notably reluctant to name Lux his everyday second baseman during the team’s abbreviated spring training, repeatedly noting he needed to earn the position. There’s also a growing sentiment among insiders that L.A. could keep Lux in the minors for several weeks in order to gain another year of club control. The Blue Jays nearly employed the same tactic with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. last spring, before their prized third baseman suffered an oblique strain and was placed on the injured list.

Pro: The Dodgers have a strong track record for player development

It isn’t merely a coincidence that the Dodgers have produced more NL Rookie of the Year winners than nine other teams combined. Their savvy scouting, smart drafting, and commitment to developing young players is legendary. L.A.’s most recent success stories have been Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger, who won back-to-back NL Rookie of the Year trophies in 2016 and 2017.

Con: Lux’s swing needs work

Lux has a remarkably complex swing with more moving parts than a Rube Goldberg invention. By his own admission, it takes 30-to-40 at-bats for him to feel like he’s "finally getting locked in." Given the fact he only logged 29 at bats in spring training, it’s easy to imagine Lux getting off to a slow start and losing his place in the order.

Pro: Lux’s competition doesn’t stack up

Colorado infielder Brendan Rodgers underwent surgery to repair a labrum tear in his right shoulder last July, and the Rockies have made it clear they have no intention of rushing their No. 1 prospect back. The Padres are also taking a patient approach with power pitcher MacKenzie Gore, whom they believe needs more seasoning. Don’t be surprised if he spends a month or more in the minors before being called up to San Diego.

Carter Kieboom, meanwhile, will likely be the Nationals’ Opening Day third baseman, but it’s unclear if he’s ready to fill Anthony Rendon’s shoes. The 22-year-old hit just .128 in 39 at-bats with Washington last season.

Final verdict

Lux is far from a can’t miss prospect, but he’s further along in his development than much of his competition, and should benefit from going to a team laden with veteran mentors who will ease his transition. Jump on his plus odds now while you still can.

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