Friday MLB preview: Braves at Nationals, Marlins at Phillies

Atlanta Braves (44-31) at Washington Nationals (36-38), 7:05 p.m. ET

Dallas Keuchel (0-0, 0.00 ERA) (ATL) +125 / +1.5 runs (-160) / Over 9 runs (-110) Stephen Strasburg (7-4, 3.75 ERA) (WSH) -135 / -1.5 runs (+135) / Under 9 runs (-110)

MLB free play: Over

Dallas Keuchel will make his long-awaited 2019 debut for the Braves against the suddenly-surging Nationals (10-5 last 15 games) on Friday night. The Braves have been hot, too, at 11-4 in their last 15 games, and they typically do well against Washington starter Stephen Strasburg. With these offenses showing no signs of slowing down, the Over is the way to go.

Keuchel, who will likely be on a strict pitch count, could get chased early anyway. The Nationals are averaging 5.93 runs per game during their current hot streak. Washington second baseman Brian Dozier, outfielder Adam Eaton, catcher Yan Gomes and utility man Howie Kendrick are a combined 25-for-65 (.385) all-time against the southpaw.

Strasburg held the Braves to two runs in seven innings of work May 28, but in the last three seasons he has a 4.55 ERA against them (11 starts). Atlanta first baseman Freddie Freeman has 17 hits in 50 at-bats against Strasburg. The Braves, averaging 6.93 runs in their last 15 tilts, should keep on rolling on offense.

Miami Marlins (27-46) at Philadelphia Phillies (39-35), 7:05 p.m. ET

Sandy Alcantara (3-6, 3.73 ERA) (MIA) +195 / +1.5 runs (-120) / Over 8.5 runs (EVEN) Aaron Nola (6-1, 4.89 ERA) (PHI) -220 / -1.5 runs (EVEN) / Under 8.5 runs (-120)

MLB Free Play: Marlins moneyline

The Marlins are an appealing upset pick against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.

Sandy Alcantara will start for Miami, and his ERA over his last three efforts is 2.50. Several Phillies hitters have struggled with Alcantara in the past. Left fielder Jay Bruce, second baseman Cesar Hernandez and first baseman Rhys Hoskins have just two total hits in 17 tries against the starter.

Aaron Nola has a 7.71 ERA in three starts this month. His WHIP in that span is an even more disconcerting 2.082. Nola stymied the Marlins in his lone start against them this year (April 25), when he scattered seven hits and allowed just one run, but Miami's lineup is playing better now (.256 average, 14th among all clubs in June). Marlins third baseman Brian Anderson, 6-for-17 lifetime against Nola, has a solid .924 OPS this month. Look for him to lead the way in this one.