Forecasting Mookie Betts' first season in the NL

Mookie Betts, the 2018 American League MVP, is the +500 favorite to win the 2020 National League MVP Award in his first season outside of Boston.

The Dodgers’ most recent big-name acquisition would join rare company if he is able to accomplish the feat — only Hall of Fame outfielder Frank Robinson has won an MVP in both the NL (1961, Reds) and AL (1966, Orioles) since the current voting system was established in 1931.

So is Betts a wise wager in this market? Let's dive into the stats and historical trends.

Betts has excelled against NL teams

Betts has started 93 games against NL opponents and has done very well, with a .317 average (391 at-bats), 18 home runs, and 71 RBIs. The former Red Sox outfielder has hit .297 against teams in the NL West.

Betts should thrive against the Giants, in particular, in 2020. San Francisco revamped its rotation with the addition of Kevin Gausman and Drew Smyly, but Betts is 15-for-35 (.429) with three homers against the former and 7-for-19 (.368) against the latter.

Betts isn't the first former MVP to switch leagues

History is littered with examples of MVPs switching leagues midway through their careers.

A recent one is Albert Pujols, a three-time NL MVP, who left his longtime home of St. Louis for Los Angeles and the Angels on a 10-year, $240 million contract in 2012. Pujols, who was 32 when he first suited up for L.A. and a veteran of 11 big-league seasons, has been a shell of himself. He has a .764 OPS in eight seasons for the Angels. His OPS as a Cardinal was 1.037.

Ken Griffey Jr., the 1997 AL MVP as a member of the Mariners, was traded in February of 2000 to the Reds. He hit 40 home runs and drove in 118 runs in his first NL season at age 30, but his production tailed off rapidly because of injury.

Betts compares favorably to Miguel Cabrera

Betts is much younger (27) than those two were when they switched leagues, so a better example of his potential trajectory might be that of Miguel Cabrera.

Cabrera did not win an MVP Award in five seasons with the Florida Marlins, but he reached new heights after he was traded to the Tigers before the 2008 season, when he was 25. Cabrera recorded seven straight 100 RBI-seasons to start his tenure in Detroit and won back-to-back MVPs in 2012 and 2013. He cemented his status as an all-time great when he won the Triple Crown in 2012.

It’s hard to envision Betts matching that feat, but it would not be surprising if he lives up to the hype in Los Angeles. 

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