Fade Betts and bet on Yelich to win NL MVP

By now you've probably heard Mookie Betts is favored to win the National League MVP Award during his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Depending upon which blogs you read, you may have also seen that he's expected to win the Triple Crown and walk on water by mid-June.

I get it. Betts is an electrifying player, and it isn't surprising some fans (and journalists) are getting a little carried away. After all, he’s a former AL MVP and World Series winner, who has led the league in runs in each of the past two seasons and is among the finest fielders of his generation. At age 27, Betts is also entering his prime and will be playing on a squad that has won seven straight divisional titles and ranked in the top five last season in runs, total bases, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.

There are plenty of reasons to bet on Betts, but is he really the best choice to win? Here are three reasons I’m leery of the former Red Sox phenom.

1. History is against Betts

Do you have any idea how hard it is to win an MVP Award in two different leagues? Frank Robinson is the only player in MLB history to accomplish the feat, even though stars have been bouncing back and forth between the leagues with increasing regularity since the dawn of free agency.

2. Betts isn't even the best player on his own team

Betts is not even the best player on the Dodgers. That honor belongs to reigning MVP Cody Bellinger, who is just one year removed from setting MLB records for the most total bases, hits, and RBIs before May 1. The 24-year-old trailed off slightly as the season wore on, but still hit .305, with 47 home runs and 115 RBIs, and won a Silver Slugger Award and a Gold Glove.

Bellinger isn’t the only Dodger who could give Betts a run for his money. Corey Seager is a former Rookie of the Year and two-time All-Star, who is finally healthy and is primed for a big bounce-back season in 2020. Ditto for Clayton Kershaw, who won the NL MVP in 2014 and has finished in the top 10 in MVP balloting three times.

Teammates have a tendency to split votes during awards season, and Betts has more talented teammates than anyone else in the National League.

3. Betts needs to adjust to NL pitching

Betts has recorded 437 plate appearances in interleague games. That's nearly a season’s worth of data, and while his stats are glowing (.317, 18 home runs, and 71 RBIs), they’re hardly becoming of an MVP. The four-time Gold Glove winner also hit just .217 in the 2018 World Series and will require some time to adapt to new pitchers, new ballparks, and new strategies.

I have zero doubt Betts will eventually find his footing, but a prolonged feeling-out period could easily cost him the MVP.

Say yes to Yelich

I'm passing on Betts and banking on Christian Yelich. The Milwaukee Brewers outfielder won his first NL MVP in 2018 and finished a close second in 2019, when he led the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS+. The award was well within Yelich's grasp until Sept. 10, when he broke his kneecap and was forced to miss the final 18 games of the season.

Unlike Betts, Yelich is a lifelong National Leaguer and is the undisputed best player on his own team. There’s no chance he’ll be splitting votes with Keston Hiura or Omar Narvaez. Yelich also fills the requirement of playing on a top-tier team. Milwaukee won 89 games in 2019 and should be in the hunt for the NL Central crown.

Betts is getting plenty of press right now, but Yelich will be the last man standing when the NL MVP winner is announced in November.

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