Corbin Burnes gaining ground in NL Cy Young odds

One of the more captivating storylines early in the 2021 MLB season is the emergence of Corbin Burnes as an NL Cy Young contender.

The Milwaukee Brewers’ hurler was a +4000 longshot to win the award on Opening Day, but is now just +500. Only New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom (-125) carries lower odds than Burnes to win the Cy Young at the moment.

Is Burnes a good bet in this market, or are bettors better off hitching their wagon to deGrom? Let’s take a look.

Burnes is making history on the mound

With 49 strikeouts and no walks surrendered through five starts, Burnes is only two strikeouts away from tying the all-time record for most Ks to start a season without issuing a walk currently held by Los Angeles Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen (2017). However, Jansen did so in relief – Burnes already owns the record restricted to starters.

Burnes’ strikeouts aren’t his only impressive stat. He holds a 1.53 ERA and a microscopic 0.55 WHIP through five outings. He’s throwing his cutter – MLB’s hardest at 96.1 mph  – 50% of the time while mixing in a sinker, slider, curveball and changeup. 

Can Burnes keep this up?

Burnes has endured a roller-coaster career thus far. He went 7-0 with a 2.61 ERA as a rookie reliever in 2018 before going 1-5 with a 8.82 ERA in 2019. He subsequently retooled himself and went 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA in 2020, but he wasn’t even named the 2021 Opening Day starter – that honor went to Brandon Woodruff.

The 26-year-old native of California may have left his wildness behind and could become the next deGrom, but that’s certainly not guaranteed.

Burnes would have had a chance to break Jansen’s strikeout record in the first week of May, but he was placed on the COVID-19 list just before the end of April. As usual, the exact nature of his exposure to COVID is unknown, but it’s not encouraging that he’s already missed a week with no timeline for a return.

deGrom pitching through pain?

Burnes is not the only Cy Young frontrunner that’s missed some time lately. deGrom had his most recent turn in the Mets rotation skipped due to right lat tightness, and his availability on Sunday hinges on a successful bullpen session this Friday.

If deGrom is forced to hit the IL for any length of time, that could open the door for Burnes in the NL Cy Young race. However, assuming deGrom does not miss any time and continues to pitch like he did against the Washington Nationals on April 23, the award is his to lose.

The verdict

deGrom is a far lower price than Burnes in the NL Cy Young market, but the two-time award winner’s résumé is hard to fault and is much stronger by comparison. Burnes was far more appealing at +4000 than +500, so deGrom looks like the better bet at present despite his recent injury scare.