Can Merrifield lead the MLB in hits for a third straight season?

Whit Merrifield, the Royals’ versatile second baseman, led the majors in hits in each of the last two seasons. He edged Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman by one in 2018 (192-191) and won by a healthier margin last year (206 to 201, over Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers).

Oddsmakers are not confident Merrifield will be the MLB’s hit king for a third straight season. He has been set as a +1200 favorite, tied with Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado and Astros second baseman Jose Altuve.

Here are some of the more logical options in this wide-open market, and our best bet are below.

Whit Merrifield (+1200)

Merrifield has become one of the great table-setters in the game over the last two seasons, with a .367 OBP in 2018 and a .348 OBP last year. He has also proven to be durable. He played 158 games in 2018 and the full 162 games in 2019.

However, a lack of support from an anemic Royals order is bound to catch up with Merrifield. A potentially shortened season would also give Merrifield less room for error, and he has been cutting it awfully close these last two years.

Nolan Arenado (+1200)

Arenado is always a threat at the plate (.897 career OPS), but he had just the ninth-most hits in baseball last year and failed to crack the top 10 in 2018. His status as a co-favorite in this market is puzzling.

Arenado would never be placed at the top of an order like Merrifield would. His lack of speed and great power make him better-served as a No. 3 or No. 4 hitter. With trade rumors circling, Arenado’s performance could take a dip in 2020.

Jose Altuve (+1200)

Altuve led the majors in hits in 2014 and 2016, but injuries have hampered him in each of the last two seasons. He has missed 63 games in that span.

His hits-per-game figure has dropped from just more than 1.3 at his peak, to just more than 1.2 in 2018 and 2019, and that may have been with help from illegal sign stealing during home games. Bettors should avoid Altuve.

Rafael Devers (+1300)

The ascendant Devers is our top selection in this market. He finished the 2019 campaign, just his third in the majors and first in which he played more than 121 games, with only five fewer hits than Merrifield.

However, he led all hitters with 359 total bases (National League MVP Cody Bellinger was second with 351), even though he played only 156 games and sat toward the bottom of the order for the first several weeks of 2019.

Devers is primed to play all 162 games (if possible) in 2020 and could take departed teammate Mookie Betts’ spot at the top of the order. His natural ability could make him one of the most feared hitters in all of baseball this season.

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