Can Christian Yelich still win the NL MVP Award?

Christian Yelich's National League MVP campaign was dealt a crushing blow Tuesday evening, when the 27-year-old outfielder fractured his right kneecap in a game against the Miami Marlins. The bad break—both literal and figurative—occurred in the first inning, when Yelich fouled an Elieser Hernandez slider off his knee. The two-time All Star was forced to exit the game and has since been ruled out for the remainder of the season.

The injury comes at an especially bad time for Yelich, who appeared to be making up ground to Los Angeles Dodgers star Cody Bellinger in the NL MVP race.

NL MVP odds before Yelich injury

It also couldn't come at a worse time for the Milwaukee Brewers, who are fighting for a playoff spot. Milwaukee has fallen to third place in the NL Central and is one game behind the Chicago Cubs for the second NL Wild Card spot.

Can Yelich still win NL MVP?

Absolutely. Yelich has played 130 games, which is more than enough to qualify for the MVP and the NL batting title. It's worth considering that Kansas City Royals third baseman George Brett won the AL MVP Award in 1980, despite appearing in just 117 games. Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Mike Schmidt won the NL MVP Award the following season, even though he logged just 102 games. More recently Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton won the AL MVP Award in 2010 after suiting up for 133 games.

The case for Yelich

It may seem hard to believe, but Yelich was having an even better season than 2018, when he won the first MVP Award of his young career. The California native presently leads the NL in on-base percentage (.429), slugging percentage (.671), OPS (1.100), OPS+ (178) and total bases (328), and ranks in the top three in batting average (.329) and home runs (44). Yelich was particularly magnificent during the first half of the season, when he hit .329, with 31 home runs and 67 RBIs, and became the first player in franchise history to clobber 30 homers before the All-Star break.

With more than 15 games remaining this season, Yelich's counting stats will almost certainly be eclipsed, but his slash line is virtually untouchable.

The case against Yelich

As impressive as Yelich was in 2019, he trails Bellinger in one key statistical category—wins above replacement. Bellinger's 8.2 WAR is a full point higher than Yelich's mark of 7.1, which is significant, given the weight the metric carries in modern-day baseball analysis.

Yelich also trails Bellinger in doubles, walks and RBIs and is tied with the Dodgers' slugger with 44 home runs. Assuming Bellinger remains healthy and avoids an epic slump, he should eclipse that number by the end of the week.

And then there's the matter of team performance. Since 2009 the NL MVP award has gone to a player on a team that has finished first or second in its division. That trend heavily favors Bellinger, as the Dodgers clinched their seventh consecutive NL West title Tuesday, with a commanding 7-3 win over the Baltimore Orioles.

Bet on Bellinger

It feels odd to write about Yelich in the past tense, but that's where we are at this point in the season. The Brewers slugger was extraordinary in 2019, but his ill-timed injury and Milwaukee's mediocre performance will ultimately cost him a second-consecutive NL MVP Award.

You won't find much value in Bellinger, but he's absolutely the safest—and smartest—pick as the season winds down.

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