Bellinger surging ahead of Yelich in NL MVP odds

Cody Bellinger finally has a little breathing room in the 2019 National League MVP race.

The Dodgers outfielder has seen his NL MVP odds improve from -110 Aug. 1 to -160 Aug. 5. Bellinger's shorter odds have come at the expense of Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich, who plummeted from -110 to +130 during the same span. Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman is a distant third at +1600.

Bellinger has been red hot in 2019

Bellinger hasn’t just been good this season; he’s been historically good. The former NL Rookie of the Year established new MLB records for most total bases (97), hits (47) and RBIs (37) before May 1. He also broke the Dodgers’ franchise record for most home runs before the All-Star break when he clobbered his 29th against the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 4.

Bellinger is hitting .326 with 36 home runs and 85 RBIs in his third season with the Dodgers and leads the NL with a 7.1 WAR.

Yelich has been keeping pace

Yelich entered 2019 a prohibitive favorite as the reigning NL MVP, which he earned after his first year in Cream City. The 27-year-old got off to a torrid start—he hit .353 with 14 home runs and 34 RBIs in April—but cooled off slightly in May as he dealt with back spasms.

Yelich leads the National League in home runs, slugging percentage, OPS and total bases, and is well on his way to crushing the career-high marks he established in 2018.

Bellinger is in the driver's seat

As good as Yelich has been, there are three reasons to believe Bellinger will win his first MVP award in 2019.

Team performance is a key factor

The MVP is an individual award, but voters often take team performance into account. Since 2009 the NL MVP award has gone to a player on a team that has finished first or second in its division. That’s bad new for the Brewers, who are in third place in the NL Central. Milwaukee has dropped its last four games and is sporting a miserable -29 run differential.

The Dodgers, on the other hand, have the best record in baseball and hold a comfortable 17-game lead over the Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants in the NL West. They remain the odds-on favorites to win the division and return to the World Series for a third straight year. Not all of that is due to Bellinger, of course, but L.A.'s success gives him an edge, particularly in such a tight race.

Back-to-back MVP winners are a rarity

Blame it on voter fatigue or humanity's innate attraction to shiny new things, but only six players have won back-to-back NL MVP awards since 1911. The last player to pull off the feat was Albert Pujols in 2008-2009. Only 31 players have won multiple MVP awards in the past 108 years.

Second Half Performance is Crucial

Yelich won the NL MVP award in 2018 thanks to a monster second half, in which he hit .367, with 25 homers and 67 RBIs. The odds of him duplicating that kind of herculean effort again are minimal, especially given his slow start this month. Yelich has just four hits from 17 plate appearances in August.

Bellinger hasn’t been significantly better than Yelich since the calendar changed, but his two home runs in August suggest his power numbers should continue to be strong as the Dodgers enter the stretch drive.

The MVP isn't wrapped up just yet, but it's becoming increasingly clear that the coveted award is Bellinger's to lose.

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