ALDS preview: New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins

The New York Yankees will play the Minnesota Twins in the best-of-five American League Division Series that begins Friday. Here's how the two teams stack up.

Starting pitching

The Yankees will be without Domingo German, one of their more reliable starters this year, because of a domestic-violence investigation by the MLB. James Paxton is the lone New York starter with a sub-4.00 ERA this season. Masahiro Tanaka has a 5.26 ERA in 14 outings since the All-Star break.

The Yankees are likely to trot out a combination of swingman Chad Green and underachieving starter J.A. Happ (4.91 ERA) in one game. New York's starters have allowed the most home runs of any playoff team (152), which spells trouble against Minnesota's top-ranked lineup in homers (307).

Jake Odorizzi and Jose Berrios, likely to line up for the first two games at Yankee Stadium, have lower opponent batting averages in road starts for the Twins this season.

However, much like the Yankees, the rotation is thin behind the top two. Southpaw Martin Perez (5.12 ERA) could be Minnesota's starter in Game 3. Odorizzi's prior performances against the Bombers' table-setters, namely infielders Didi Gregorius and D.J. LeMahieu (5-for-30) gives Minnesota a slight advantage.

Edge: Twins

Bullpen

These bullpens enter the ALDS fairly even, as the Yankees relievers were fifth in the AL in ERA (4.08) while the Twins were sixth (4.17). However, New York could add C.C. Sabathia and Luis Severino to the mix to eat innings. Aroldis Chapman, second in the AL with 37 saves in 2019, is one of several Yankees relievers with playoff experience. This group seems more trustworthy than the Twins' relief corps, led by Taylor Rogers (30 saves).

Edge: Yankees

Lineup

The Twins and Yankees are the two most home run-happy squads in the majors at 307 and 306, respectively, during the regular season. Both teams can hit for average, too, as Minnesota is second in baseball at .270, while New York is close behind at .267 (fourth).

Designated hitter Nelson Cruz has been the offensive MVP for the Twins this year. He led the club in homers (41) and OPS (1.031) and enters the postseason red-hot, with 13 hits in his last 26 at-bats. Shortstop Jorge Polanco (.841 OPS) is a consistent contributor near the top of skipper Rocco Baldelli's lineup.

The Bombers have suffered through a litany of injuries in 2019, but LeMahieu's presence at the top of Aaron Boone's order has been huge. His OBP is .375, so he gives guys like second baseman Gleyber Torres, the team leader in home runs at 38, plenty of chances to drive in runs.

Edge: Even

X-factor: History

The rosters have changed over the years, but the results have stayed the same. The Yankees have defeated the Twins in 13 of their last 15 postseason meetings. That has to get into an organization's head after a while.

"Obviously it’s on my mind for this next series in Yankee Stadium that I got the ball in that (2017) wild-card game," Berrios told the St. Paul Pioneer Press, referring to his losing effort from two years ago. "I'm just excited to go in there and have a second chance to go against them and help my team win."

Betting trends

The Twins are 46-18 in their last 64 road games and 24-9 in their last 33 overall. The Yankees went 57-24 at home this year and 48-33 against the spread. They also beat Minnesota in the season series, 4-2.

Pick: Yankees in five games

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