5 MLB players who could regress in 2020

These five players appeared to overachieve last season, based on advanced statistics. They may be due for regression in 2020, which could impact their club’s playoff chances.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (San Diego Padres)

Tatis had just 379 plate appearances during his rookie campaign (.317, 22 home runs, 53 RBIs), and missed time with two separate injuries, but his performance on the field was good enough to land third-place honors in the National League Rookie of the Year battle. There is reason to believe he will take a step or two backward in 2020.

Tatis had an exorbitant .410 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) in 2019, something that hardly seems sustainable against a league average of .297.

The San Diego slugger may also regress in the power department. His 2019 slugging percentage (.590) beat his expected slugging percentage (xSLG, which is formulated using exit velocity and launch angle) by a full 100 points. He also struck out at an alarming 30% rate.

Mike Minor (Texas Rangers)

Minor made his first All-Star team in 2019. He had a strong first half (8-4, 2.54 ERA), but his horrible second half could be more indicative of how he’ll fare in 2020.

Although he played four fewer games in the unofficial second half of the season, Minor allowed six more home runs than he did in the first half. That partially explains why his ERA was 4.93 over his final 14 starts.

Minor’s increase in strikeout rate (from 7.6 per nine innings in 2018 to 8.6 last year) was counterbalanced by his increase in walk rate (2.2 per nine innings to 2.9).

Dakota Hudson (St. Louis Cardinals)

Hudson had a solid rookie campaign for the Cardinals, with a 16-7 record and a 3.35 ERA, but underlying statistics suggest the sophomore will struggle in St. Louis this year.

Hudson’s FIP (fielding-independent pitching, which converts a pitcher’s three true outcomes into an ERA-like number) was more than a full point higher (4.93) than his ERA (3.35) in 2019. That was due in part to his elevated walk rate (4.4 per nine innings), which also contributed to his weak WHIP (1.408).

Yuli Gurriel (Houston Astros)

It will be very interesting to see how the Astros fare in 2020, now that the cat is out the bag regarding their sign-stealing tactics. Players with God-given ability in the prime of their careers, like Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, will probably not experience a big falloff in their numbers, but aging Cuban ex-pat Yuli Gurriel could.

Gurriel, 35, hit 31 home runs in 2019, which looks like an outlier, considering he hit a total of 31 in his first two full seasons in Houston. He beat his xSLG (.422) by an outrageous 119 points last season, the third-highest mark in the majors.

Keston Hiura (Milwaukee Brewers)

Hiura did an admirable job filling in as the Brewers’ second baseman down the stretch (84 games). He hit .303 with 19 home runs and 49 RBIs, but regression should be expected in his sophomore season.

Hiura’s batting average figures to take a hit. He produced a .402 BABIP last year. Also, his strikeout rate was an elevated 31%. According to Rotoballer.com, only Hiura, Tatis, David Dahl, Yordan Alvarez, and Nelson Cruz had a strikeout rate worse than 25% and hit better than .300 last year, and only Cruz played the full season.

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