The best betting props for the RBC Heritage

The PGA Tour cruises on to Harbour Town Golf Links in South Carolina, for the RBC Heritage, set to begin Thursday, June 18.

The 52nd annual tournament, held in Hilton Head, will offer the second PGA event since the Tour resumed play, following a hiatus due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Just like last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge (won by longshot Daniel Berger), the RBC Heritage will feature an expanded field, which includes the top five players in the world.

Below, we break down some of the best prop bets to play this weekend.

Last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge came down to a playoff between Berger and Collin Morikawa. Up until then, the event had gone to extra holes just twice in the past decade.

When it comes to the RBC Heritage, the margin of victory has been consistently close throughout much of the event’s history. Dating back to 2001, the competition has been decided by one stroke or a playoff 14 times.

In 2009, Brian Gay won by a record 10 strokes, but don’t expect to see that kind of dominance with a loaded field participating this weekend. Take your chances on a playoff, or a winning margin of one stroke.

Pick: Playoff +300

This is an extremely talented group filled with three players who finished in the top 10 of the Charles Schwab Challenge last week, plus World No. 1 Rory McIlroy, who tied for 32nd at Colonial, and No. 2 Jon Rahm, who missed the cut.

While all five of these pros can contend for the plaid jacket in Hilton Head, Thomas is worth a look here. He’s fourth on Tour in scoring average, 12th in greens in regulation, fourth in strokes gained tee-to-green, and in the top 60 in proximity to the hole. His skill set will come in handy with Harbour Links' narrow fairways and small greens.

He hasn’t played the RBC Heritage since 2016, since the event typically takes place the week after the Masters. However, he did post an 11th-place finish in 2015, and so far this season, he’s won twice on Tour and landed in the top 10 in seven of 10 events.

Pick: Thomas +350

Coming off the high of his Charles Schwab victory, Berger should be confident approaching Harbour Links. He’s 44th on Tour in driving accuracy, 20th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 10th in scrambling, and 10th in scoring average.

For comparison, Koepka — who tied for 32nd last week — is currently 217th in driving accuracy, 106th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 178th in scrambling, and 125th in scoring average.

Reed tied for seventh at Colonial and won the WGC-Mexico in late February. He’ll provide a challenge for Berger, but hasn’t played this course since 2015, when he missed the cut. Koepka has never played the RBC Heritage.

Berger finished 33rd at this event last year and has finished ninth, fifth, fourth, and first in his last four tournaments this season.

Pick: Berger +180

Justin Rose tied for third last week, but Harbour Links might not be as kind to him as Colonial. Rose is 143rd in driving accuracy, 101st in strokes gained tee-to-green, 201st in scrambling, and 217th in greens in regulation. He also hasn’t played this course since 2008, and withdrew before the second round of the tournament.  

Tyrrell Hatton didn’t play last week, but he has posted two sixth-place finishes, a 14th-place finish and a win at the Arnold Palmer so far this season.

He’s a solid play here, but if you’re looking for a longshot, take Luke Donald at +900. Donald finished 11th in his last appearance on Tour, the Honda Classic in late February. He also finished second at the Heritage in 2009, 2011, 2014, 2016, and 2017, and third in 2010 and 2013.  

Pick: Hatton +300 or Donald for a swing at a longshot

Top-five finish

Webb Simpson struggled in his return to the Tour, with a missed cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge. However, he’s capable of shining at Harbour Links. Simpson is 32nd in driving accuracy, 15th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 14th in scrambling, tied for sixth in proximity to the hole, and second in scoring average.

The North Carolina native is a regular participant at this tournament, and recorded his best finish (2nd) in 2013. He also landed in 16th last year, fifth in 2018, and 11th in 2017.

Before he placed 61st at the WGC-Mexico in February, Simpson had posted a win at the Phoenix Open, finished second at the RSM Classic, third at the Sony Open, seventh at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, and 10th at the Hero World Challenge.

Look for Simpson to bounce back this weekend with a top-five finish.

Pick: Simpson +600

Find the full list of odds for the RBC Heritage at BetAmerica