Scott Shapiro's 3M Open Preview

Muirfield Village Golf Club played extremely tough last week where it was top pick Jon Rahm that made the fewest mistakes en route to a 3-stroke victory over Ryan Palmer. The 25-year-old Spaniard struggled a bit on the back nine during the final round, but fortunately did enough to earn his fourth career victory on the PGA tour. The win elevated Rahm to number one in the Official World Golf Rankings.  

It is on to Minnesota where the field is considerably weaker for this week’s 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. This is just the second time the Par-71 event has been part of the tour with Matthew Wolff capturing the inaugural edition in 2019.

The course has wide fairways, large greens, and minimal trouble to be found, so expect a ton of birdies and a winning score between 20 and 25 under par.  I leaned on players that have a high birdie or better percentage, gain strokes off the tee and on approach, and score well on Par 4’s between 400 and 500 yards and Par 5’s when conducting my research this week.

The field is led by Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood, and Tony Finau. Their outright prices on BetAmerica are between +1000 to +1400.

Their top efforts will make them tough to deny in Blaine, but I prefer golfers who offer better value and may be a bit more motivated this week. Here are the players on my card at the 2020 3M Open:

Lucas Glover (+2800)

The 2009 U.S. Open champion has not won a PGA tour event since 2011, but heads to Minnesota in great form. The 40-year-old has made the cut in all five tournaments since the break, including four top 25 finishes. He also played well in his only try over the configuration finishing seventh in last year’s 3M Open.

Glover’s game fits TPC Twin Cities wonderfully. He ranks second in the field over the last 24 rounds in shots gained tee-to-green and shots gained approach, and ranks third in birdies or better gained. His short game is always a concern, but if his iron play is on point his around the green game should not come into play. He generally loses strokes on the greens, but he putt well at Muirfield last week, so there is hope he can carry the momentum with the flat stick to the North Star State.

I will dabble with Glover in the outright market, but my biggest play of the week will be on him to finish in the Top 10.

Doc Redman (+5000)

The 22-year-old North Carolina native has struck the ball extremely well since the break. He posted three consecutive Top 25 finishes before missing the cut last week at the Memorial.

I can forgive his performance at Muirfield not only because the course played incredibly difficult, but because he continued to strike the ball well. It was his short game that let him down big time, losing 2.1 strokes around the green and an unrepeatable 6 strokes putting over the first two rounds. Redman is not very good on the greens, but there is almost certain to be positive regression in Minnesota after the pitiful performance with the flat stick in Ohio.

The 2017 U.S. Amateur champion ranks third in the field over the last 24 rounds in strokes gained approach, 17th in birdies or better gained, and crushes Par 4’s between 450 and 500 yards. It is just a matter of time before he captures his first PGA tour win.

Charley Hoffman (+7000)

The four-time winner is not the most consistent golfer on the PGA tour, but when he is in form he is capable of playing really well on courses like TPC Twin Cities. The 43-year-old Las Vegas resident missed the cut in his first two starts back from the break, but made it to the weekend at the Travelers and really put things together two weeks ago at the Workday Charity Open.

Hoffman ranks twelfth in the field over the last 24 rounds in birdies or better gained, ninth in Par 5 scoring, and is eleventh in strokes gained approach. At +7000 he offers solid value with the acknowledgement that he is also quite capable of missing the cut.

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