PGA Shriners Hospitals for Children Open: Odds, props and picks

Viva Las Vegas! I visited Sin City for the first time last Christmas, and while I didn’t marry a stripper, fight Mike Tyson, or end up with a tiger in my bathroom, I think about that trip every single day. So it is with a warm heart and happy memories that I get to take a look at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open that takes place at TPC Summerlin in the heart of the Vegas desert.

This tournament has traditionally been a birdie-fest, and if you ignore the 2017 result which was savaged by wind, the average winning score since 2004 is 22-under-par.

But you’d be wrong to think this is all about who is hottest with the putter. While Kevin Na was unstoppable with the flat-stick last year, his win was a bit of an outlier and the three winners prior to him were outside the Top 30 for Strokes Gained Putting.

Considering the easy, generous fairways and some of the least frightening rough on tour, it’s actually driving accuracy that seems key here with 10 winners in a row all ranking in the Top 20 in that category before Na 12 months ago was ranked 25th.

Keeping driving accuracy and some decent form in mind, here are my picks for the best betting props for the showdown in the desert.

Tournament winning margin: Exactly one stroke (+250)

This isn’t a prop bet I usually play, but this tournament rarely sees a runaway winner. In the last 12 years it has gone to a playoff four times, been won by a single stroke four times, and been won by two strokes three times. The only outlier is Webb Simpson’s six-stoke win in 2013.

I envisage the winning score to be somewhere between 18-under and 22-under depending on how strong the wind gets as we go deeper into the weekend, and don’t be surprised if there are several players within a stroke or two of the lead on Sunday morning.

This is set to be close from start to finish.

Top U.S. player: Collin Morikawa (+1600)

It is a stacked field for this event and the Top U.S. player prop is fiercely competitive, but that still can’t put me off backing Morikawa with four places on offer. Morikawa missed the cut at the U.S. Open after struggling on the opening day, but I’m happy to forgive him that blip and row in behind him in Vegas.

For one, he has local ties here, having bought a home in Vegas. Morikawa won the Barracuda in Nevada in July 2019, and other winners of this competition include Vegas residents Kevin Na and Ryan Moore. There’s plenty to be said for home comforts.

Morikawa is superb with the driver, ranking fifth on Tour for shots gained tee to green in 2020, and in the Top 20 for shots gained off the tee. In his penultimate start at the Tour Championship, Morikawa was sixth for driving accuracy, and if the 23-year-old hotshot can repeat that kind of form he will be right in the mix at the top of the leaderboard.

Top 20 finish: Stewart Cink (+400)

From young gun to a Tour veteran! Cink finished 15th the last time he played this tournament in 2017, finishing with rounds of 67 and 66 to take his card to 13-under-par, and the 47-year-old can strike a Top 20 finish again this weekend.

Cink ended an 11-year drought when he won the Safeway Open a month ago, and he followed that up with a 12th place finish in the Sanderson Farms Championship last week. In both those tournaments he ranked in the Top 20 for shots gained off the tee and inside the Top 25 for driving accuracy.

He putted very well to win the Safeway Open in September and at a tempting price Cink is in good enough form to get my vote.

Top 20 finish: Rickie Fowler (+190)

In the same market, it’s worth having a second look at Rickie Fowler. The man with incredible fashion taste has played TPC Summerlin four times and finished seventh, 22nd, 25th, and then fourth in 2019. What’s more notable is that in those tournaments he has ranked 14th, second, first, and eighth for strokes gained putting, so he clearly enjoys these surroundings.

Fowler is an aggressive player who has been struggling with his swing since the switch from Butch Harmon, but there’s a chance it clicks in Vegas where he has shot 15 of his 16 rounds under par.