PGA Tour: Houston Open betting odds, props, and picks

Last week’s Bermuda Championship was all about the weather, and trying to uncover a prop bet that could deal with the blustery forecast — which we did, with three winning selections!

But enough back-slapping from this writer, it’s all about the here and now. Specifically, the Houston Open, where the key talking point is the bunkers, or more importantly, the lack of them!

Held at Memorial Park in Texas, this course was completely reworked last year by architect Tom Doak and former world No. 1 Brooks Koepka. The duo spent $34 million on the course (not their own money, fortunately for them), and on Koepka’s advice, reduced the number of bunkers from 54 to 19. According to Brooks, the pro players aren’t too concerned by sand traps and steep slopes with short grass will pose more of a challenge.

We have yet to see a PGA Tour event on the new course, which makes things a little tricky, but based off that insight, we need to be looking for players who have a brilliant touch around the greens.

With five par 5s and a par 4 that goes well beyond 500 yards, I’m also on the hunt for someone who can bomb it off the tee, while a hot putter is going to be key on Bermuda greens with plenty of undulation.

Top 20 finish: Ollie Schniederjans (+400)

I’m a sucker for a comeback story, and while Schniederjans has that, he also has a ton of quality to back it up.

In the 2018-2019 PGA Tour season, he recorded just one top 25 finish and was outside the top 150 in the FedEx Standings, which means he dropped back to the Korn Ferry Tour. He completely fell out of love with the game, but dug deep, went back to basics, and is now on the comeback trail.

In the first part of the Korn Ferry season this year, he has finished in the top 25 in eight of his 17 tournaments and received a sponsor’s exemption to play in the Bermuda Championship last week. He took full advantage and finished third, which gives him another shot at PGA Tour glory this week.

Schniederjans is a local lad in Texas, which I always look for, but there are also some key numbers. Last week, nobody played better on the par 5s, as Schniederjans took them apart in a combined score of 10-under. He ranked eighth in driving distance last week and fourth in scrambling.

Similar numbers in Texas could put him right in the mix for a strong finish.

Group E winner: Phil Mickelson (+375)

Need someone who can bomb it off the tee and has an excellent short game? Step forward, Phil the Thrill.

Lefty just turned 50 and finished well down the field, in 76th, last time he was on the PGA Tour, at the Zozo Championship.

However, he hasn’t lost his winning touch. He shot 17-under to win the Oct. 16-18 Dominion Energy Charity Classic on the Champions Tour.

Mickelson will aim for his fourth green jacket at Augusta next week, but this tune-up event could bring out the best in him. He has won six tournaments in a final start before a major — the International in 1997; the Bell South Classic in 2000, 2005, and 2006; the Players Championship in 2007; and the Scottish Open in 2013.

Mickelson will need to beat Harold Varner, Alex Noren, Lee Westwood, and Erik Van Rooyen for this bet to click, but I have faith in Lefty.

Top GB & Ireland player: Tyrrell Hatton (+150)

The odds on Hatton for the Masters next week have been tumbling, as everyone tries to ride the hot form of the Englishman. Anyone who has already backed Hatton at Augusta may be a bit disappointed to see Hatton in Texas, instead of taking a break, but why stop a man in form?

Hatton followed up his BMW Championship win with a third-place finish in the CJ Cup and finished 28th in the Zozo Championship — a result that would have been far better if not for a 76 Saturday.

Before the changes that came with the COVID-19 pandemic, Hatton won the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which is played on Bermuda greens, like this course, so I have no worries about his putting. And while he is in good form, it seems crazy not to back him against the likes of Shane Lowry and Lee Westwood.

Top 10 finish: Will Gordon (+1200)

I’m willing to take a flyer on Gordon, who popped out of my little black book when I was looking through the stats this week. While his recent form isn’t going to blow you away — he finished 53rd in the Sanderson Farms Championship, missed the cut in the Shriners, and put in four average rounds to finish 34th in the Bermuda Championship — he might just be flying under the radar.

He can bomb it off the tee and ranked 17th in driving distance on tour last year. He’s not all length and no accuracy, either, as he ranked fourth in greens in regulation. That is going to help him massively on par 5s, and he isn’t bad on the short holes. He ranks fifth in 2020 for par-3 scoring.

The lack of wind in Texas will hopefully allow Gordon to show his best game, and at a huge price, he is worth chancing to put in a top 10 showing.