Golf: Bet on Justin Thomas to win his second major

Nearly three years ago, new world No. 1 Justin Thomas notched his only major victory at the 2017 PGA Championship.

In yesterday’s dramatic triumph at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational, the 27-year-old looked like a player on the precipice of his next major win.

Heading into this week’s PGA Championship, Thomas is the +900 co-favorite to claim the title at TPC Harding Park. Defending champ Brooks Koepka, who nearly forced a playoff with JT in Memphis on Sunday, is the other frontrunner in San Francisco.

While Thomas is a solid bet at the PGA Championship, he has two other chances to hoist a major trophy this season.

After the PGA Tour rearranged its schedule, because of the COVID-19 pandemic, three of golf’s majors adopted new dates. The Masters, typically the first major, is the last on schedule and will be hosted in November. Next week’s PGA Championship is now the first major of the year, with the U.S. Open to follow Sept. 17.

The Open Championship was canceled.

Thomas posted his best finish at the Masters last season, when he tied for 12th, and has made the cut in all four of his appearances. His best outing at the U.S. Open occurred in 2017 (tied for ninth), the same season he won the PGA Championship.

That year, Thomas beat Francesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen, and Patrick Reed by two strokes at Quail Hollow for his only major win.

Thomas is unfamiliar with Harding Park, but the 10-year trends for the PGA Championship indicate he is a strong contender.

Eight of the past 10 tournament winners secured a top-10 finish in a prior PGA Championship, had won a stroke-play event the same season they won the major, and were ranked in the top 25 in the world. Eight of the past 10 champions were also in their 20s.  

Thomas checks all four of those boxes.

So far this season, he has achieved three victories and 10 top-10 finishes out of 15 appearances on Tour.  

Since the Tour resumed play in mid-June, he put up a 10th-place finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge, landed eighth at the RBC Heritage, missed the cut at the Travelers, and fell to Collin Morikawa in a playoff at the Workday Charity Open.

In July’s Memorial Tournament, where only nine players finished under par, Thomas came in 18th. Then on Sunday, he rallied in the final round to win the St. Jude, which marked his 13th Tour win.

With that victory, Thomas became the third-youngest player since 1960 to collect 13 PGA Tour victories. Only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus were younger when they reached the milestone.

Joining that type of exclusive company is inspiring, but so is the way Thomas won the St. Jude.

On Sunday, he began four strokes behind third-round leader Brendon Todd, and sank four birdies in his first nine holes to play catch-up. Late in the day, Thomas stood atop the leaderboard, in a tie with Todd, Koepka, Daniel Berger, and Tom Lewis.

Then the magic happened.

On the 15th and 16th holes, Thomas hit two errant drives, but with a little luck and a whole lot of mental stamina, he managed to birdie both.  

With some of golf’s biggest names breathing down his neck, he made par on 17 and 18 to finish three strokes ahead of Koepka, Berger, Lewis, and Phil Mickelson.

Thomas also accomplished all of this with a last-minute change at caddie.

With his regular sidekick, Jimmy Johnson, out with an illness, Thomas decided to employ Mickelson’s former caddie, Jim "Bones" MacKay, ahead of the Memphis tournament.

The duo excelled, and will work together again at Harding Park. 

Thomas has hit his stride and proved in last weekend's tournament that he can find a way to win, even when part of his game isn't working well.

With the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and Masters all fast approaching, the timing couldn’t be more perfect for Thomas to secure his second major victory and further plant himself among golf's elite.

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