Top 5 NCAAF mammoth spread busters for Week 7

The favorites hit back last week, but do not count out those underdogs just yet! This week we are going to start barking Friday night and bite on Saturday. Here are my mammoth spread busters for Week 7.

Colorado (+21) at Oregon, Friday, 10 p.m. ET, FS1

Both teams enter this matchup averaging 447 total yards per game and 34 points per game. Both teams are also balanced in their run and pass game. Oregon has a much better defense, but there is one key statistic that stands out. Colorado is converting 46.2% of its third downs, compared to only 39.1% for Oregon. If the Buffs can stay on the field by converting third downs, they should be able to cover.

South Carolina (+24) at Georgia, Saturday, noon ET, ESPN

The Gamecocks are coming off an important win over Kentucky, but got a bye to rest up for their trip to Athens. The Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS on the road since the start of the 2017 season. They also only lost to Alabama by 24 points, which would even cover this spread. Georgia has only beaten South Carolina by more than 24 points once since 1974. I predict South Carolina will cover this spread even if it won't come close to pulling off the upset.

Toledo at Bowling Green (+26.5), Saturday, noon ET, CBSSN

This pick is all about trends. Toledo has only beaten Bowling Green by more than 26 points once on the road since 1966. The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in the past three seasons coming off a home win. Bowling Green has been terrible this season, but the Falcons are due for a cover.

Michigan at Illinois (+22.5), Saturday, noon ET, ABC

Michigan has only played one road game this season and was humbled by Wisconsin. The Wolverines have been historically mediocre on the road, and they are 4-7 ATS in road games in the past three seasons. Illinois has been decent at home, and nearly upset Nebraska in Week 4. The Illini have not lost at home to Michigan by more than 23 points since 1995. Illinois starting quarterback Brandon Peters previously played for Michigan, so I'm sure he'll be plenty motivated. You may see the Wolverines on upset alert again Saturday.

Florida State (+26.5) at Clemson, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

The Seminoles have disappointed this season, but they have not been blown out in any game. Clemson has the talent to run away with this one, but before last season, they had never defeated Florida State by more than 21 points. As good as Clemson has been ATS the past three seasons (20-12), the Tigers are only 2-5 ATS when favored by 21.5-31 points. The Seminoles will want revenge from the blowout last season and will keep this game within reach until late.

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