SEC football picks: NMSU at #2 Alabama, EMU at Kentucky
September 6th, 2019
New Mexico State at # 2 Alabama (-55.5), Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Alabama is a 55.5-point favorite this week. Not often do you see a spread this high, but when you do, it’s important to change your perspective on how to handicap it. In most football games handicapping the spread involves anticipating what each team is going to do. With sheer domination inevitable when Alabama takes on New Mexico State on Saturday, we need only to analyze what we think Alabama is going to do.🎥 New Mexico State gave up 618 yards of offense last week to Washington State, including 507 yards through the air & finished the game with a 50.7 overall defensive grade.
— BamaOnLine (@BOL_On3) September 6, 2019
What type of #s will Tua & Alabama's offense put up this weekend?
WATCH MORE: https://t.co/nC9T32SrRS pic.twitter.com/tkdLJUzUoV
Alabama has never covered as a favorite of more than 50 points under Nick Saban. While it’s easy to see this matchup and think a 60-3 win is inevitable, the truth is, Saban has no problem whatsoever running his third-string running back right into the backside of his third-string guards for an entire half. This will be an exhibition of sorts, as Saban will use the game to determine depth at various positions and do everything possible to avoid injuries. It doesn’t matter how good Alabama is or how bad New Mexico State is; under Saban, you have to take the points here.
Kentucky is also 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 games against the MAC. This is an impressive trend that highlights the talent mismatch that occurs when an SEC team plays a lesser opponent.
Pick: New Mexico State +55.5
Eastern Michigan at Kentucky (-15), Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Farther north, Eastern Michican will take on Kentucky in what should be a much more competitive game. Kentucky is favored by 15 points and has taken the majority of the money from bettors. The Wildcats are an emerging SEC team and playing at home, so that makes sense.Kentucky is also 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 games against the MAC. This is an impressive trend that highlights the talent mismatch that occurs when an SEC team plays a lesser opponent.
The prevailing theory going into this season was that Toledo would be a difficult test for UK but Eastern Michigan would not be much more than a breather in week two to get Kentucky set up for a third week showdown with Florida. https://t.co/MJcAzLnEqx pic.twitter.com/cVdHpzanwq
— WKDZ Radio (@WKDZ) September 4, 2019
Eastern Michigan is an even more impressive 17-4 against the spread in its last 21 non-conference games, but I have to side with Kentucky. I’m a strong believer in the work head coach Mark Stoops is doing in Lexington and believe this team will be better than last year’s. The Wildcats will dominate this MAC team that will be overwhelmed by the physical superiority of Kentucky.
Pick: Kentucky -15
Texas A&M at Clemson (-16), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Jimbo Fisher returns to familiar surroundings with plenty of talent. This spread is too high for a Clemson team that only won by two points in last year’s matchup.Pick: Texas A&M +16
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