SEC football picks: Kentucky vs. Toledo & 5 more

Pick: Toledo +11.5

Last year head coach Mark Stoops and the Kentucky Wildcats earned the school its first 10-win season since 1977. The Wildcats lost just three games—against Texas A&M, Georgia and Tennessee—and reached a high of No. 11 in the AP poll at the end of October. To close out the season, Kentucky handed rival Louisville an embarrassing 56-10 loss and defeated Penn State 27-24 in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day.

Repeating last year’s historic feat will be difficult for the Wildcats, who lost Chuck Bednarik Award winner Josh Allen and all-time leading rusher Benny Snell to the NFL.

Fourteen starters departed from Kentucky, which leaves the Wildcats to rely on young talent in 2019. Junior Terry Wilson is back at quarterback (2,436 total yards, 15 total touchdowns) to lead what should be a more balanced offense. To compensate for the loss of Snell (1,449 yards, 16 TDs), A.J. Rose (442 yards, five TDs) will get his chance as the lead back, with an experienced offensive line in front of him.

Kentucky had a top 10 defense in 2018 but will likely regress with the departure of seven starters and defensive coordinator Matt House, who is now on staff with the Kansas City Chiefs. UK’s outside linebackers coach Brad White, who previously worked with the Indianapolis Colts, was promoted to defensive coordinator to replace House.

While the Wildcats work on jelling as a new unit, they'll get a nice warm-up against Toledo in their home opener Saturday. The Rockets went 7-6 in 2018 and 5-3 in the Mid-American Conference. Junior quarterback Eli Peters (1,837 yards, 18 TDs) and leading rusher Bryant Koback (917 yards, 14 TDs) return to the team, but top receivers Diontae Johnson (761 yards, eight TDs), Jon'Vea Johnson (660 yards, nine TDs) and Cody Thompson (647 yards, 10 TDs) all left to play at the pro level.

Dating back to 2006 UK has won 10 straight games against MAC teams, and it will add one more Saturday but fail to cover the 11.5 points.

Oregon vs. Auburn (-3.5), Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Pick: Oregon moneyline (+135)

Quarterback Justin Herbert (3,151 yards, 29 TDs) decided to stay another year at Oregon, and he’ll join nine other returning starters on offense. Auburn has the better defense coming in, but the Tigers start over on offense with a new quarterback and revamped receiving corps. Oregon is the play for this neutral-site game in Texas.

South Carolina (-11) vs. North Carolina, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Pick: South Carolina -11

Longtime Texas coach Mack Brown hung it up in 2013, but he’s back to give football another chance with North Carolina, the team he coached from 1988-1997. On Saturday on a neutral field in Charlotte, North Carolina, Brown will face his former defensive coordinator at Texas, Will Muschamp, now in his fourth year as coach of South Carolina. The Gamecocks return a ton of experience, while North Carolina is in rebuilding mode following a 2-9 record in Larry Fedora’s final season.

Ole Miss at Memphis (-6), Saturday, noon ET, ABC

Pick: Memphis moneyline (-220)

In an attempt to revive the Ole Miss program, the Rebels brought in Rich Rodriguez as offensive coordinator and will feature a more run-based offense in 2019. Redshirt freshman Matt Corral will get the start at quarterback, while senior Scottie Phillips (928 yards, 12 TDs) will carry the run game. Junior Brady White (3,296 yards, 26 TDs) has a year of experience under his belt as the Memphis signal-caller and will count on Damonte Coxie (1,174 yards, seven TDs) to help lead the offense. Ole Miss had the worst defense in the SEC last season, and defense will continue to be its weakness against Memphis on Saturday.

Duke vs. Alabama (-33.5), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Pick: Alabama -33.5

Duke quarterback Daniel Jones is now playing for the New York Giants, which makes way for senior Quentin Harris to start for the Blue Devils. In Tuscaloosa, Tua Tagovailoa (3,966 yards, 43 TDs) has his eye on the Heisman Trophy after he came in second in the voting last year, and Saturday’s matchup in Atlanta is his first chance to prove he deserves the award in 2019. Alabama averaged 45.3 points per game last season and allowed 18.1. Duke is simply outmatched, and the Crimson Tide will show no mercy.

Georgia (-21) at Vanderbilt, Saturday, 7:30 p.m.

Pick: Georgia Bulldogs -21

The Bulldogs have the lineup to finally knock Alabama from the top spot in the SEC, though they lost key pieces in Mecole Hardman, Deandre Baker, and Elijah Holyfield. Quarterback Jake Fromm (2,749 yards, 30 TDs) and tailback D’Andre Swift (1,049 yards, 10 TDs) return to head the offense backed by an experienced offensive line. Vanderbilt has yet to name its starting quarterback ahead of the huge matchup Saturday. At least the Commodores can count on leading receiver Kalija Lipscomb (916 yards, nine TDs) and top rusher Ke’Shawn Vaughn (1,244 yards, 12 TDs) to be a staple of their offense. Last season Vandy lost 41-13 at Georgia. Expect a similar blowout in Tennessee.

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