Scully's Week 2 NCAAF picks: North Carolina is a vulnerable favorite

North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Sam Howell. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

September 9th, 2020

The ACC and Big 12 begin this weekend, while the SEC is set to start on Sept. 26.

The cancellation of spring football took away much-needed practice sessions from teams, and fall camp wasn’t the same for most programs, either.

I do not expect a high level of execution from most teams and will play against overvalued favorites this week.

Syracuse at #18 North Carolina

North Carolina is a raw and inexperienced squad searching for an identity. The Tar Heels are young and talented, but they are still trying to sort out rotations on the offensive and defensive lines.

UNC will win this game, but they will make enough mistakes for Syracuse to cover the bulky spread.

After a 10-3 season, in which they nearly beat Clemson, Syracuse fell apart in 2019.

The offensive line stunk, and the defense didn’t tackle effectively. However, Dino Babers can still coach, and the experienced offense will turn things around this season behind second-year starter Tommy DeVito, who can score points through the air and on the ground.

LAST TIME IT HAPPENED:

The last time @CuseFootball opened the year at North Carolina, it went to Double-OT w/ Syracuse pulling out a wild 49-47 win.

The Orange was down 34-17 in the 3rd, rallied to force OT. UNC's 2-point conv. try to tie was stopped, sealing a win.@CNYCentral pic.twitter.com/N4mN7oOg4X
— Niko Tamurian (@NikoTamurian) September 8, 2020

The defense also will be improved under new coordinator Tony White, who was hired away after having success at Arizona State.

I love the job Mack Brown is doing in Chapel Hill, but sophomore quarterback Sam Howell can be error-prone and must avoid trying to do too much with the loaded roster around him.

Syracuse will hang around with a sloppy North Carolina that will get significantly better as the season develops.

Free pick: Syracuse +22

Louisiana-Lafayette at #23 Iowa State

Iowa State’s Brock Purdy is a big-time quarterback, but he has lost a lot of talent on the outside the past two seasons and will have four new offensive linemen up front. The inexperienced receiving corps may be a work in progress.

The Cyclones will rely on the ground game and short passes in this matchup, and seek to keep the explosive Louisiana-Lafayette offense off the field.

Louisiana-Lafayette brings an experienced squad with plenty of firepower. The team finished last season ranked in the top 10 in total offense.

Levi Lewis threw 26 touchdowns and only four interceptions. The offense ran the ball effectively behind Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell.

Last season, Levi Lewis passed for a record 3,050 yards, rushed for 195 yards, threw for 26 TDs, and only 4 interceptions.

His development as a QB was clear to see during the LendingTree Bowl.

All Cajun fans should be excited about this guy. #GeauxCajuns #cULture pic.twitter.com/jfYinno9Q4
— Sidelines - Louisiana (@SSN_Louisiana) June 28, 2020

Defense is always a concern against major opponents, but the Ragin' Cajuns bring back so much depth — especially in the secondary — and are capable of surprising folks in this contest.

I expect a close game.

Free pick: Louisiana-Lafayette +11.5

Arkansas State at Kansas State

Arkansas State brought back 13 starters and has a game under its belt. The Red Wolves lost 37-24 to high-powered Memphis last week.

The offense can stretch the field, with Logan Bonner and Jamal Jones putting up big numbers. Dahu Green (five catches, 99 yards last week) serves as a valuable complement to top receiver Jonathan Adams.

Well-coached Kansas State has quarterback Skylar Thompson back in the fold, but the rebuilding Wildcats are eligible to start slowly after losing 28 seniors, including 15 starters.

The secondary lacks depth and will be tested Saturday. With a new offensive line, and three new starters up front defensively, Kansas State could have used spring practice.

Kansas State will have success on the ground against the Red Wolves. Arkansas State surrendered 227 rushing yards last week, but the Red Wolves can keep it competitive on offense.

With no fans in the stadium, Kansas State won’t be able to feed upon the home environment, and the Wildcats will be happy to escape with a narrow win.