Scully’s Week 11 NCAAF picks: NC State will rout Florida State

Clemson sustained its first loss of the season in Week 10, but the Tigers remain a top contender for the 2020 College Football Playoff.

Power Five conference teams will claim at least three spots in the semifinals. Unbeaten teams competing for the possible fourth spot include BYU, Cincinnati, and Liberty.

After six consecutive winning weeks against the spread, I am dialed in on the college football season. Let’s keep it rolling with three picks in Week 11.

Notre Dame vs. Boston College

The Irish should be on upset alert. Boston College is legitimate, and the Eagles are getting too many points against an opponent in letdown mode.

Clemson embarrassed Notre Dame in the 2018 College Football Playoff, and Week 10 presented the opportunity for a measure of revenge, because the No. 1 Tigers were vulnerable on defense and without All-American quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

But now the Irish must get up for Boston College.

Unbeaten Notre Dame still has its sights set on the CFP, but the Irish won’t make it. They aren’t that good. They have a tough test at North Carolina coming up, and Boston College may upset them in between.

Boston College exits a 16-13 win over Syracuse that wasn’t as close as the score indicates. The Eagles led by 10 most of the second half and surrendered a meaningless touchdown in the final seconds. BC was conservative and relied upon the ground game, but the Eagles have balance, as quarterback Phil Jurkovec has posted more than 260 passing yards per game.

After it was one of the ACC’s lowest-scoring teams for years, Boston College has averaged 26 points per game this season. They play with an attitude on defense, and I’ve been impressed by new coach Jeff Hafley, who was a finalist for the Broyles Award as the defensive coordinator at Ohio State last season.

It’s no surprise Notre Dame is 3-4 ATS. The Irish favor low-scoring games dominated by defense and the running game, and they are often overvalued. Boston College will cover in Week 11.

Pick: Boston College +13.5

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Northwestern vs. Purdue

Battle-tested Northwestern will flex its muscles in a comfortable win over Purdue. I expect the Wildcats to win the Big Ten West.

They finally have a quarterback, in transfer Peyton Ramsey, and the Northwestern defense can hold its own with anybody. The Wildcats have not surrendered a point in the second half this season.

Purdue, which missed a game when Wisconsin's COVID-19 outbreak forced a cancellation in Week 10, was outgained in its first two games, but Iowa and Illinois made enough mistakes for the Boilermakers to prevail.

Purdue’s offense basically consists of one short pass after another, but it is averaging two turnovers per game.

Northwestern may wind up being the second-best team in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State, and the Wildcats are undervalued in this spot.

Pick: Northwestern -2.5

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Florida State vs. NC State

I was surprised to see this line. North Carolina State is going to pound Florida State, and I can’t believe the spread isn’t in double digits.

Let’s take advantage!

NC State averages nearly 33 points per game with a quality offense. Florida State lost starting quarterback Jordan Travis last week, and the backups were terrible.

The Seminoles have one of the worst offenses in college football, and the defense gave up 41 points in Week 10 to Pittsburgh.

This one will be ugly.

I like Florida State head coach Mike Norvell — he will get things turned around eventually — but Florida State doesn’t have the players to be competitive in this spot. The Seminoles are a miserable 2-5 ATS this season.

NC State has been one of the better teams for bettors, with a 5-2 ATS record, and don’t miss the opportunity to cash with the Wolfpack.

Pick: NC State -10

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James Scully's NCAAF ATS record heading into Week 11: 14-10