Scully’s Army-Navy Game preview and pick
Navy Midshipmen quarterback Malcolm Perry breaks away for a 70-yard run against SMU. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)
December 13th, 2019
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
Army | +10.5 (-111) | +335 | Over 40.5 (-107) |
Navy | -10.5 (-109) | -450 | Under 40.5 (-113) |
After 14 straight wins earlier this century, Navy will look to snap a three-game losing streak to Army when these rivals meet for the 120th time.
Passing is not a strength for either triple-option team. Both want to run the ball—Navy ranks first in rushing yards per game (360.8), while Army ranks second (311.7)—but the similarities stop there. The Midshipmen are ranked 21st in the AP Top 25, with a 9-2 record, and their only conference loss came to AAC champion Memphis. This game will serve as a tune-up for their Liberty Bowl matchup against Kansas State.
Army went downhill during the second half of the season, with five straight losses, and two of the Black Knights' five wins have come against FCS teams.
Passing is not a strength for either triple-option team. Both want to run the ball—Navy ranks first in rushing yards per game (360.8), while Army ranks second (311.7)—but the similarities stop there. The Midshipmen are ranked 21st in the AP Top 25, with a 9-2 record, and their only conference loss came to AAC champion Memphis. This game will serve as a tune-up for their Liberty Bowl matchup against Kansas State.
Army went downhill during the second half of the season, with five straight losses, and two of the Black Knights' five wins have come against FCS teams.
Navy has an edge at quarterback
Malcolm Perry provides Navy with a significant advantage at quarterback. An elite athlete, Perry directs an explosive attack that enters in good form. The Midshipmen rebounded from a disappointing loss at Notre Dame in November with a couple of powerful performances against SMU and Houston, in which they rushed for 825 combined yards and scored 91 points. Navy is also better on defense than previous years and has held five opponents to fewer than 20 points this season.MALCOLM PERRY 70 YARDS TO THE 🏡@NavyFB takes the lead 35-28. pic.twitter.com/CAfZYnU9k7
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) November 23, 2019
Army’s quarterback situation has been in flux, with Kelvin Hopkins Jr. benched during the season and knocked out of the last game, but the senior has been cleared to start his final game. The defense has been disappointing, as well. Despite a soft schedule, the Black Knights gave up 4.5 yards per rush. Hawaii gashed them most recently, and Army could not stop teams like San Jose State and Tulane this season.
Navy should score early and often, and I can’t envision Army holding them under 30 points, regardless of conditions. This game will get away from Army quick, but the Black Knights will help push the total over by avoiding the shutout.
Just because they run doesn't mean they won't score
Wet conditions are expected, and the last 13 meetings between these teams have gone under the total. The underdog has covered eight of the last 10 in this series. Despite those numbers, I like Navy and the Over.Navy should score early and often, and I can’t envision Army holding them under 30 points, regardless of conditions. This game will get away from Army quick, but the Black Knights will help push the total over by avoiding the shutout.
Picks: Navy -10.5 and Over 40.5
James Scully’s 2019 NCAAF record ATS on BetAmerica heading into the Army-Navy Game: 33-33 (2-3 last week)
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