Pinstripe Bowl: Michigan State vs. Wake Forest preview and pick

Wake Forest was one of the few pleasant surprises in an ACC season filled with disappointments, and as a result of the Deacons' success, they'll head to blustery New York to take on Michigan State in the Pinstripe Bowl on December 27.

Wake Forest enters the game 8-4 straight up and 5-6-1 against the spread, while Michigan State is 6-6 and an abysmal 3-9 ATS. Were it not for pillow-fight matchups against Maryland and Rutgers to close the season, Michigan State would be spending the holidays at home.

Michigan State vs. Wake Forest, 3:20 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Wake Forest was hit hard by injuries at the end of the season

I struggle to understand why Michigan State is favored, considering the résumés of each team. Wake Forest did not end the season well, but that can be blamed in large part on the injuries to starting quarterback Jamie Newman and star wide receiver Sage Surratt. Newman has a leg injury but is currently listed as the starter for this bowl game, and I expect him to play. If he is unable to go, Sam Hartman will get behind center and he does have game experience.

The loss of Surratt has certainly been felt, as he led the team in receiving yards and touchdowns by a wide margin. But Kendall Hinton is still available, as is Scotty Washington, who averaged 17.3 yards per reception. While the offense won’t be as explosive as it was early in the season, it is well coached by Dave Clawson and should be able to score some points.

Michigan State is no longer among college football's elite

On the other side of the field, Michigan State is an unrecognizable shell of its former self. A team that once prided itself on power running, timely play action and elite defense is really none of those things anymore.

Supporters of the team have questioned if head coach Mark Dantonio is the right man for the position, as the arms race of college football continues to call for elite talent or creative scheming to compete, neither of which exists in East Lansing these days. I have never been impressed by Brian Lewerke’s play, and I don’t believe he has the talent to be a winning quarterback. He has a 58.6 completion percentage, averages only six yards per attempt and has a mediocre 16-12 touchdown-interception ratio.

Michigan State has superior lineman on both sides of the ball, but the Spartans' weaknesses are evident and can be exposed. Michigan State’s lone impressive win this year was against Indiana, and the rest of its wins came against Tulsa, Western Michigan, Northwestern, Rutgers and Maryland.

I like Wake Forest plus the points against a team that has failed to live up to bettor’s expectations nearly all year.

NCAAF free pick: Wake Forest +3.5

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