Picks for 2024 College Football Conference Championships
WEST LAFAYETTE, IN - NOVEMBER 16: Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin runs out on the field with his players during the college football game between the Purdue Boilermakers and Penn State Nittany Lions on November 16, 2024, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)
December 4th, 2024
The 2024 conference championship weekend means more this year due to the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP), and YouBet will look to make a profit with four best bets from the exciting slate of games. All lines courtesy of BetMGM, times listed as Eastern.
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UNLV at Boise State (8 p.m. Friday): UNLV
Boise State was favored by four points at UNLV in late October, winning 29-24, and the line remains the same despite their home-field advantage in the Mountain West Championship Game. UNLV has improved since then behind quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, who took over in early October and has thrown for 17 touchdowns and four interceptions while proving to be an exceptional rusher (more than 2,500 yards combined), and the Rebels defense has had success against Boise’s Ashton Jeanty, limiting the top running back to 3.9 average yards per carry (longest run 16 yards) in the first meeting.
Broncos rely on the ground game, so this game will come down to rushing offenses, and UNLV enters in their best form, outscoring the last three opponents by a combined 106-50 margin. The Rebels have the offense to give Boise State all they can handle, and the points are attractive in an expected close game.
Iowa State vs Arizona State (12 p.m. Saturday): Iowa State
Arizona State ranks as one of the best teams for bettors, going 10-2 ATS this year, but the Sun Devils do have a couple of major drawbacks, most significantly losing star receiver Jordyn Tyson to a season-ending injury last week. Quarterback Sam Leavitt and running back Cam Skattebo remain talented weapons, but Iowa State owns a big edge on special teams, as the Sun Devils rarely try field goals due to their kicking game ineptitude, going nearly a month without a made field goal during one stretch of the season.
Iowa State’s Matt Campbell is one of the nation’s best coaches when catching points, recording a 35-22 ATS mark and covering by more than four points per game when an underdog. And the 10-2 Cyclones have emerged from a midseason slump where they barely defeated Central Florida and lost consecutive games versus Texas Tech and Kansas, finishing strong with three consecutive wins.
The Cyclones can match points with the upstart Sun Devils, with Rocco Becht throwing for more than 3,000 yards to a pair of dynamic weapons in Jayden Higgins (1,068 receiving yards) and Jaylin Noel (1,013 receiving yards), and Iowa State’s 18th-ranked scoring defense (allowing only 19.6 points per game) will be the difference against an Arizona State team that will feel the loss of Tyson.
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Georgia vs Texas (4 p.m.): Texas
Quinn Ewers continues to make positive strides since returning from injury, leading Texas to a comfortable 17-7 win over Texas A&M last week, and this is a revenge setting for the Longhorns, who entered their Week 7 meeting unbeaten and untested and got punched in the face by Georgia, trailing 23-0 at halftime before finding their footing and outscoring the Bulldogs in the second half.
Ranked fifth in this week’s CFP poll, Georgia can afford a loss and still make the playoff. And the Bulldogs will feel the effects of a grueling, dramatic come-from-behind over Georgia Tech that went to eight overtimes. We saw Auburn and Texas A&M come out flat last week after playing a four-overtime game a week earlier, and Georgia will still have everything to play for when the playoffs begin next week.
Texas is our best bet of the week.
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Penn State vs Oregon (8 p.m.): Penn State
Oregon played only one team with a winning record away from home, narrowly defeating Wisconsin 16-13 in Week 10, and their favorable schedule may do them no favors in the postseason. Penn St. has been much more tested over the last couple of months. Along with taking Ohio State to the buzzer at home, the Nittany Lions have shown their fortitude on the road, winning courageously at USC, blowing out Wisconsin, and winning a dogfight over a gutsy Minnesota team late in the season.
Penn St. has averaged 38.5 points in four games since losing to Ohio State in early November. Oregon features one of college football’s best offenses behind Dillon Gabriel and Jordan James, but the Nittany Lions have allowed only 11 passing touchdowns and rank fourth in total defense (266.9 yards allowed per game). We project a tight game that is decided by a field goal or less.
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