NCAAF weekday preview: North Carolina at Pittsburgh & 2 more

The 4-5 North Carolina Tar Heels have been a difficult team to peg in head coach Mack Brown’s first season. On Thursday night the Tar Heels will get the chance to prove themselves in a crucial matchup with ACC Coastal foe Pittsburgh.

The 6-3 Panthers are searching for a spot in the ACC Championship Game for the second consecutive year and have already dropped two games in conference play, to Virginia and Miami. The Tar Heels are 3-3 in the conference, with just a one-point defeat to Clemson, a six-overtime loss to Virginia Tech and a 24-18 defeat to Wake Forest. North Carolina did manage to top Miami, a team Pittsburgh lost to by four points, and bested Georgia Tech (38-22) and Duke (20-17).

The Tar Heels and true freshman quarterback Sam Howell rank 27th in the FBS in passing yards per game (277.4), though Pittsburgh isn’t far behind, with 246.4 per contest. In North Carolina’s last game, a 38-31 loss to Virginia, Howell threw for 353 yards and four touchdowns and has accumulated 2,472 yards, 26 passing touchdowns and five interceptions on the season.

Receivers Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome have been key components in the passing game and have combined for 1,326 yards and 14 touchdowns on just 78 catches. The Tar Heels rushing attack features sophomore Javonte Williams (738 yards, three TDs) and junior Michael Carter (629 yards, 5.1 yards per carry). Williams has broken the 100-yard rushing mark three times this season, including a 144-yard outing against Georgia Tech in October.

Pittsburgh’s offense may not measure up to the level of North Carolina, but the defense is its strongest advantage. The Panthers allow just 294 yards per game (10th in the FBS), compared to North Carolina’s 396.3 opponent average, and rank eighth in opponent rushing yardage (91.2). The Panthers are also second in sacks per game (4.2).

Pittsburgh comes into Thursday’s matchup as a 3.5-point favorite and is 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games overall. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Panthers and 4-1 ATS in their last five in Pittsburgh.

Besides UNC’s seven-point defeat to Virginia in Week 10, its last three losses have been decided by three points or fewer. The Tar Heels will put up a difficult fight Thursday, but Pittsburgh’s defense should get the better of them in the end.

Pick: North Carolina +3.5

Buffalo (-5.5) at Kent State, Thursday, 7 p.m. CBSSN

MACtion is back on Thursday night, as the 5-4 Buffalo Bulls battle with the 3-6 Kent State Golden Flashes in Ohio.

The Bulls sit in second in the MAC East after three straight conference wins and will face a Kent State squad looking for its first victory since a 26-3 defeat of Akron on October 12.

The Bulls are a run-first offense, propped up by sophomore backs Jaret Patterson (995 yards, seven TDs) and Kevin Marks (730 yards, five TDs). Buffalo averages 216.9 yards per game (20th in the nation) and should experience little issue against the third-worst run defense (256.6 yards per game) in college football.

Kent State quarterback Dustin Crum and his receiving corps put up 203.1 yards per game through the air, while the rushing attack averages 174.0 yards per contest. Buffalo gives up 223.4 yards per game through the air but is ranked third in opponent rushing yardage (77.5).

The Bulls defeated Kent State 48-14 last year but are favored by just 5.5 points Thursday. Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games and last four overall. The Bulls are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games at Kent State and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings overall.

Pick: Buffalo -5.5

Northern Illinois vs. Toledo (-2.5), Wednesday, 8 p.m., ESPN2

Over in the MAC West, the 3-6 Northern Illinois Huskies will visit three-loss Toledo on Wednesday night and look to halt the Rockets’ two-game win streak.

The Huskies are coming off a 48-10 drubbing by Central Michigan, in which the Chippewas ran for 327 yards and put up another 288 through the air. That defensive performance doesn’t bode well for Northern Illinois’ clash with Toledo, considering the Rockets rank ninth in rushing yards (258.5 per game).

Lead Rockets back Bryant Koback averages 6.5 yards per carry and has amassed 1,052 yards and 10 scores on the season. Quarterback Mitchell Guadagni is also lethal with his legs and has racked up 332 yards and four rushing touchdowns, on top of 1,099 passing yards and eight more scores. He may return Wednesday night after he missed the last three games with an undisclosed injury.

The Huskies attack more often through the air, but quarterback Ross Bowers isn’t the most consistent thrower. The senior has completed just 57.9% of his passes and has tossed eight interceptions to only six touchdowns. He’ll face a Toledo defense that gives up 280.2 yards through the air and 485.0 total yards of offense.

The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams, and the under is 7-0 in the last seven. The Huskies and Rockets have split the last four games, but Toledo won the last time these teams met in Ohio.

Pick: Under 54.5

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