NCAAF Week 2 Betting - TCU at SMU (Fri, Sept. 7)

by Fairway Jay

Crosstown rivals collide in Dallas Friday night, and TCU is expected to steamroll over SMU in the first game of NCAAF Week 2 betting. The rest of the college football schedule plays out over a fantastic Saturday slate!

#16 TCU Horned Frogs vs. SMU Mustangs Friday, Sept 7 - Gerald J. Ford Stadium - 8pm ET NCAAF Week 2 Betting Line: TCU -22.5 (58.5)

What a line move from the opening number of 17.5, and an even bigger adjustment from what would have been a line near 13 prior to last week’s results. That’s a lesson to learn about overreaction, but also one to follow at times with momentum and mismatches. That’s the case with TCU as they look to lay it on their crosstown rival in NCAAF Week 2 betting. Potential late letdown in the second half knowing TCU has Ohio State on deck, and that last week North Texas pulled starters and took the foot off the pedal when leading SMU 36-0. The Mean Green had already passed for more than 400 yards. The Mustangs scored all their points in the fourth quarter in a 46-23 loss and rushed for a total of 4 yards.

The stats and point of attack play suggests TCU will stomp SMU in to a mudhole. Teams that outrush their opponent by at least a 2:1 margin are a long term 75% ATS play, and the Frogs look like they will run rough shot over the Mustangs. The Frogs warmed up last week with a 55-7 romp over FCS Southern U, balancing the offensive attack with 235 yards rushing and 264 yards passing. This looks like another pounding the Ponies again, as TCU has won the last eight games in this series including the last five by 19 points or more. Point spread records show new SMU coach Sonny Dykes to be 12-21 ATS as an underdog in his coaching career at La Tech and Cal. He was hired by SMU due to his strong ties in the state of Texas. Dykes also served on Gary Patterson’s staff last season at TCU as an offensive analyst. He has a strong offensive pedigree, but there is a learning curve for the SMU players and don’t expect TCU to go soft against their football recruiting rival.

If you decide to play it, I could only suggest to lay it. But with the best numbers long gone, look towards a first half play on TCU -13.0

NCAAF Week 2 Betting - TCU -13.0 (1st Half) and TCU -22.5