NCAAF Week 14: Air Force vs. Utah State odds, preview, and pick

Two Mountain West programs looking to shake off slow starts will meet at Maverik Stadium on Thursday night, when the Air Force Falcons (2-2) visit the Utah State Aggies (1-4).

Is there value with the Aggies as home underdogs, or is Air Force simply too good? Here is our wagering preview.

Both programs enter off wins against New Mexico

Utah State handed the New Mexico Lobos their 14th straight loss in a Thanksgiving Day victory.

Sophomore quarterback Andrew Peasley looked good in his first start of the year. He completed 14 of his 21 passes for 239 yards and three touchdowns and also scrambled for 118 yards on the ground.

However, Air Force looked even better when it handled New Mexico, 28-0, at Falcon Stadium on Nov. 20. The Lobos were held to 303 total yards by the Falcons defense. Air Force sophomore running back Brad Roberts dazzled, with 177 rushing yards on 28 carries.

Air Force’s rushing attack should have a field day

Air Force sophomore quarterback Haaziq Daniels has attempted just 31 passes through four games, because the Falcons are a running team first and foremost. They lead the nation in yards per game on the ground (336.5).

It’s a “by committee” approach for the Falcons. Roberts leads the way, with 280 rushing yards, and Daniels has added 189. Close behind in third and fourth on the team are junior wide receiver Brandon Lewis (180 yards), and junior fullback Timothy Jackson (178 yards), respectively.

They should run roughshod against a subpar Utah State defense that allows 202.8 rushing yards per game, 102nd in the country.

Can Utah State’s offense keep up?

Air Force’s defense is 26th in the country in points allowed per game (22). Utah State had struggled mightily to produce points in 2020, prior to the New Mexico game. The Aggies scored a mere 45 points in their first four games.

Trends say Air Force will cover

The Falcons are usually able to sustain momentum. They’re 16-5 against the spread in their last 21 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points. They're also 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing fewer than 20 points in their previous game. They’ve also covered in four of their last five games played in December.

The Aggies have failed to cover in five of their last six. They are also 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games when they accumulate more than 200 yards rushing in the previous contest.

Score prediction: Air Force 38, Utah State 17

NCAAF Pick: Air Force -10.5

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