NCAAF Week 13 upset picks: UNC will hand Notre Dame its first loss

It's Thanksgiving week, which means not one, but two full days of college football! With nine games scheduled for Friday and a full slate of games on Saturday, it’s a great time to look for some solid sports betting value.

Let’s take a look at which games can provide a solid return on investment in Week 13.

#13 Iowa State vs. #17 Texas

We start with a battle between two of the Big 12's top three teams as the first-place Iowa State Cyclones visit Texas. The Longhorns have beaten Iowa State in 14 of their 17 meetings, including all but one matchup in Austin, but one of those three defeats to the Cyclones came last season. Both teams enter the game on the back of a three-game win streak, but only one of those games has been against a ranked team: Texas’ overtime win over the same Oklahoma State team that beat Iowa State.

So why is this game primed for a slight upset? Iowa State's ability to run the football gives them a huge edge. RB Breece Hall leads the nation in rushing with more than 1,100 yards and 16 touchdowns, while QB Brock Purdy has gained more than 2,000 total yards and scored 16 touchdowns himself. Their defense has been solid, and they shut out Kansas State last week in a 45-0 blowout.

Texas seemed to be getting on track on defense, but after a bye week and a postponed game against Kansas, they are now coming into this matchup having not played in three weeks. In the two games prior to their time off, QB Sam Ehlinger had two of his lowest yardage totals of the season as Texas won by a total of 10 points. Iowa State’s defense is going to put him under pressure, and if they can take a lead and control the clock, it should lead to a very important win for the Cyclones.

#2 Notre Dame vs. #19 North Carolina

What do you get when you put two high-powered offenses on the same field? You get a game where anything can happen. Notre Dame has been outstanding this season, winning all eight of their games including a double-overtime win over Clemson. However, they have allowed 71 points over their past two games, and have shown the ball can be moved on them. North Carolina’s high-powered offense is averaging over 43 points per game, and they have scored 207 points over their last four outings.

The reason I believe there could be an upset in play is due to injury concerns—and injury recoveries. For North Carolina, they have both starting cornerbacks likely returning on defense, and center Brian Anderson and wide receiver Beau Corrales may also be back for this game. Meanwhile, Notre Dame will be missing two major components to their offensive success, as RG Tommy Kraemer is out after an appendectomy. In addition, Jarrett Patterson, arguably the best center in the nation, is out for the season with a foot injury.

I don’t expect North Carolina to stop Notre Dame’s offense, as their defense has not been very good this season. However, the return of two starters, combined with the loss of two-thirds of Notre Dame’s interior offensive line, could be just enough of a boost for them to slow them down. If the Tar Heels are able to keep pace on the offensive side of the ball and keep it close late, they might have enough to end the Irish’s unbeaten run.

Ball State vs. Toledo

Speaking of explosive offenses, Ball State has scored at least 31 points in each of its first three games this season. The Cardinals take on a Toledo team that has scored at least 38 points in each of its three games thus far as well. The two teams combine for nearly 1,000 yards of total offense per game. As such, this game is expected to be a shootout with one of the higher totals in college football during Week 13.

The problem for Toledo is that they come in as a big favorite but may be without starting quarterback Eli Peters. He suffered a knee injury just before halftime in his team's win over Eastern Michigan last Wednesday, and there has been no update on his condition. Given he was on crutches with an ice pack, even if he does start he will likely be limited in his mobility. This will put more pressure on RB Bryant Koback, as they try to help out backup QB Carter Bradley. After the injury to Peters, Toledo threw the ball just eight times in the second half, although Bradley did gain 108 yards and two scores on just five completions.

Keep an eye on the injury report leading up to this game. If Peters is ruled out, the line will likely shift towards Ball State. If you can get a solid price, it could pay out very nicely for a Ball State upset win as they take advantage of the Rockets’ missing signal caller.

UTEP vs. Rice

UTEP has lost three straight games after a solid 3-1 start to the season. Cancellations have caused those three games to be played over an eight-week span, however, and they enter this game having an unexpected bye week once again. The Miners had a solid first half in their game two weeks ago against UTSA, but they were outscored 28-0 after the break to lose by 31.

Rice has performed well on offense, and a major part of that has been the outstanding play of WR Austin Trammell. He averages more than 20 yards per reception, and has gained more than 110 yards per game. However, he is questionable for the game this weekend after getting hurt in Week 12. After he left the game early in the third quarter, Rice gained just nine first downs—three of which came on a garbage-time touchdown drive while down 17.

If Trammell is out, things could get tough for Rice’s offense. Their offensive line allowed QB Mike Collins to be sacked seven times last week, and he simply couldn’t move the ball through the air without his star wideout. Without him on the field, I like UTEP to figure out their second-half woes and right the ship with an upset win. 

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