NCAAF Week 13: Oregon vs. Oregon State odds, preview, and pick
Oregon Ducks quarterback Tyler Shough (12). (Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire)
November 24th, 2020
Intrastate bragging rights are on the line as the No. 9 Oregon Ducks (3-0) visit the Oregon State Beavers (1-2) at Reser Stadium on Friday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Will Oregon build on its dominant 11-1 run in this series, or will Oregon State pull off a shocking upset? Here’s our wagering preview.
Oregon seems far superior through three weeks
The Ducks have jumped out to a 3-0 start in 2020, covering against Stanford and Washington State before edging past UCLA, 38-35, last Saturday as 18-point favorites.
Check out that TRICKERY!
— Oregon State Football News (@BeaverFBNews) November 21, 2020
Live on @FS1#GoBeavs pic.twitter.com/djZ7FQirdB
The Beavers are fresh off their first victory of the season, a hard-fought 31-27 decision over Cal. They lost to Washington State and Washington prior to that.
The Ducks’ offense is more dynamic
Oregon’s offense is ranked sixth nationally by yards per play (7.7), while Oregon State is a lackluster 67th (5.6) in the same department.
Both programs can run the ball effectively. Running backs CJ Verdell (241 yards on 50 attempts) and Travis Dye (172 yards on 21 attempts) have carried the ball well for the Ducks, while Jermar Jefferson has tallied 449 yards on 62 carries for the Beavers in 2020. But Oregon has the decisive advantage in the quarterback battle.
Continually impressed by the big man, Tyler Shough's throws pic.twitter.com/bjPwRcDzHg
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) November 21, 2020
Sophomore signal caller Tyler Shough has torched opposing defenses for the Ducks this year, completing 66.3% of his passes for 10.2 yards per attempt with a 8:2 touchdown-interception ratio. By contrast, Beavers junior quarterback Tristan Gebbia has completed only 62% of his throws for 6.2 yards per attempt with a 2:3 touchdown-interception ratio.
Ducks and Beavers statistics and rankings
| Team | Passing Yards | Rushing Yards | Passing Yards Allowed | Rushing Yards Allowed |
|---|
Oregon Ducks | 291.0 (24th) | 208.7 (27th) | 244.0 (78th) | 188.0 (89th) |
Oregon State Beavers | 189.7 (103rd) | 164.7 (64th) | 227.7 (57th) | 206.7 (104th) |
Neither team is doing it with defense
Bettors should not count on a defensive slugfest at Reser Stadium on Friday night. Oregon enters this affair ranked 102nd in the country by yards allowed per play (6.3). Oregon State’s stoppers have not fared much better in 2020, ranking 82nd by the same metric (5.9).
Trends suggest Oregon is the better bet
A bounce-back effort appears to be in order for the Ducks based on recent trends. Oregon has covered in six of its last seven games following a spread loss. The Ducks are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as road favorites.
Oregon State has failed to cover in nine of its last 12 games as a home underdog.
Score prediction: Oregon 38, Oregon State 21
NCAAF pick: Oregon -14
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