NCAAF Week 11: Utah vs. UCLA odds, preview, and pick

As if handicapping college football wasn’t hard enough in a normal year, all the bounties of 2020 have provided us yet another variable to add to the equation — roster availability.

With COVID-19 wrecking plans across the country, the Pac-12 has been given no quarter, despite a delayed start of their season.

As games get canceled and postponed, trying to determine who will play and who will be in quarantine makes handicapping even more difficult.

For the Utah Utes, the virus' impact has meant a cancellation of last week’s game against Arizona, and a change of schedule for this week’s matchup against UCLA, from Friday night to Saturday night at 10:30 p.m. ET. Cross your fingers Utah is able to field a roster.

Utah vs. UCLA

Utah has been as quietly successful as any team in the country in recent years, and much of that can be attributed to the quality coaching of Kyle Whittingham.

Since 2016, the Utes are fourth-best team in the nation against the spread, with a profitable 32-21-1 record. Now they’re set to begin their season against UCLA, a team that is already 0-1 and 0-1 ATS, after a loss to Colorado last week in a high-scoring shootout.

Through the first six weeks of the season, teams making their debut were 25-7 ATS against teams that already played a game. This notable trend indicates that bettors were overvaluing game experience, and I expect that trend to continue in this matchup.

While both rosters have undergone expected turnover, Utah defeated UCLA, 49-3, in 2019.

The Utes lost nine defensive starters but have retained leading tackler Devin Lloyd, and his veteran leadership will be critical to success in 2020.

The ebbs and flows of college football roster change have not turned over enough to overcome the enormous gap that existed between these teams last year. South Carolina transfer quarterback Jake Bentley will be the likely Utah starter, has lots of experience, and should fill the role left by Tyler Huntley.

Utah is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games, and the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups between UCLA and Utah.

Pick: Utah -3

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