NCAAF Week 11: Iowa vs. Minnesota odds, preview, and pick

Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan. (Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)

Robert Criscola

November 11th, 2020

The Iowa Hawkeyes (1-2) and Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-2) are each trying to right the ship after 0-2 beginnings.

Who will climb out of this matchup with a .500 record, and who will be left to lick their wounds at 1-3?

Let's take a deep dive into this Friday-evening affair in the Big Ten.

Iowa vs. Minnesota

Can the Hawkeyes hinder Ibrahim?

Golden Gophers junior running back Mohamed Ibrahim has given opposing defenses nightmares this season. After he rushed for 140 yards and two touchdowns against Michigan, Ibrahim has put up consecutive 200-yard performances, and the most recent against Illinois (224 yards and four touchdowns on 30 carries) earned him Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week.

Mohamed Ibrahim rushed for more than 200 yards and 4 touchdowns for the 2nd consecutive week as @GopherFootball claimed a victory at Illinois. #B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/HcWfZVDSY5
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) November 9, 2020

“I think he’s one of the most special backs in America, and when you see him walking down the street, who would think he’s a Big Ten running back?” Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck told the AP. “He’s not the biggest. He’s not the strongest. He’s not the fastest. But he’s got incredible vision.”

Iowa’s defense is the best in the Big Ten at stopping the run (102 yards per game), but it faced two opponents weak in the rushing game (Northwestern and Purdue) to pad those numbers.

Can Iowa’s offense keep up?

After they were limited to 20 points in each of their first two games, the Hawkeyes exploded for 49 in their rout of Michigan State on Saturday. However, one of those touchdowns came on a punt return and another was from an interception return.

Sophomore quarterback Spencer Petras did not impress in the victory. He failed to complete more than 60% of his passes for the third straight game and his touchdown-interception ratio for the year is an uninspiring 2-3.

It’s hard to envision Petas will keep Iowa’s offense in the game, if it turns into a track meet.

Will Morgan be able to flex his muscles?

It appears junior Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan has regressed, off a stellar sophomore year (66.1% completion rate, 28-6 touchdown-interception ratio, 10.2 yards per attempt), at a glance, but it is hard to be confident, based on a small sample size.

Morgan has dropped back to pass just 73 times in 2020. If the Golden Gophers’ defense struggles to contain Iowa’s offense, don’t be surprised if Morgan returns to his 2019 form Friday night.

Tanner Morgan: definitely good at escape rooms. 😮@GopherFootball gets on the board first in Champaign after this drive is kept alive: pic.twitter.com/fI6zf3jpGz
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) November 7, 2020

Trends say take the underdog

The Hawkeyes are in a classic letdown spot, something they’ve fallen prey to often. Iowa has failed to cover in five of their last six games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points. They’re also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games following a spread victory.

Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.