NCAAF Friday picks: UCF vs. Tulsa, Washington vs. Oregon State
November 8th, 2019
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
Central Florida Knights | -17.5 (-107) | -780 | O 69.5 (-110) |
Tulsa Golden Hurricane | +17.5 (-113) | +520 | U 69.5 (-110) |
UCF will try to stay in the hunt to defend its AAC crown when it travels to Tulsa on Friday night. The Knights are big favorites, but Tulsa has been a much better team than its record shows. The Golden Hurricane own a win over Wyoming (6-2) and have been a tough out in games against SMU (six-point loss), Cincinnati (11-point loss) and Memphis (one-point loss).
But there are some very basic betting numbers that are weighing heavily against Tulsa in this spot. UCF has won by an average of 23.9 points per game this season. The Knights' yards-per-play differential is a whopping 2.73. Tulsa, meanwhile, is losing by an average of 9.2 points per game and their YPP differential is -0.92.
Here we have a possible “give-up” game for Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane has been in a lot of close games, but is still winless in the conference. It’s a Friday-night battle, where you sometimes see big home dogs punch well above their weight. However, UCF will benefit greatly from not being ranked and having that little number next to its name. The home crowd will not provide as much boost as it would against a ranked opponent. UCF is better at all the skill positions, and while its offensive line should be an even matchup against Tulsa’s defensive front (87th in adjusted-line yards versus 85th), the Knights' defensive line should overpower Tulsa’s offensive front (16th versus 119th) and will be the deciding factor in the game.
But there are some very basic betting numbers that are weighing heavily against Tulsa in this spot. UCF has won by an average of 23.9 points per game this season. The Knights' yards-per-play differential is a whopping 2.73. Tulsa, meanwhile, is losing by an average of 9.2 points per game and their YPP differential is -0.92.
Here we have a possible “give-up” game for Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane has been in a lot of close games, but is still winless in the conference. It’s a Friday-night battle, where you sometimes see big home dogs punch well above their weight. However, UCF will benefit greatly from not being ranked and having that little number next to its name. The home crowd will not provide as much boost as it would against a ranked opponent. UCF is better at all the skill positions, and while its offensive line should be an even matchup against Tulsa’s defensive front (87th in adjusted-line yards versus 85th), the Knights' defensive line should overpower Tulsa’s offensive front (16th versus 119th) and will be the deciding factor in the game.
Pick: Central Florida -17.5
Washington Huskies at Oregon State, 10:30 p.m. ET, FS1
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
Central Florida Knights | -17.5 (-107) | -780 | O 69.5 (-110) |
Tulsa Golden Hurricane | +17.5 (-113) | +520 | U 69.5 (-110) |
No one expected Washington to have four losses at this point in the season. If the Huskies drop this game, they’ll almost certainly finish behind Oregon State in the Pac-12 North standings, which I definitely cannot envision.
When I broke down this game, I immediately noticed the number of common opponents. It can be a dangerous exercise to compare results against similar opponents when analyzing college football, but there are enough data points in this case to draw some telling conclusions. Against the slate of Hawaii, Stanford, Utah, California and Arizona, Washington is +40 (+8 points per game). Against the same slate of opponents, Oregon State is -29 (-5.8 PPG).
In the trenches these teams are very close. The quarterbacks are similar statistically, as well, though you will not hear Jake Luton’s name in NFL circles like you do Jacob Eason’s.
Defensively there is no competition. The Huskies are 46th in Fremeau Efficiency Index, while the Beavers are all the way down at 128th. In yards per play Washington holds the defensive YPP differential at +0.55. For what it’s worth Washington is also the better special-teams side. Add it all up and you have a situation where Oregon State has a small edge in offense and home-field advantage. Washington has the more accomplished coach (Chris Petersen mentored Jonathan Smith), a large talent discrepancy, a much stouter defense and a small boost from special teams.
When I broke down this game, I immediately noticed the number of common opponents. It can be a dangerous exercise to compare results against similar opponents when analyzing college football, but there are enough data points in this case to draw some telling conclusions. Against the slate of Hawaii, Stanford, Utah, California and Arizona, Washington is +40 (+8 points per game). Against the same slate of opponents, Oregon State is -29 (-5.8 PPG).
In the trenches these teams are very close. The quarterbacks are similar statistically, as well, though you will not hear Jake Luton’s name in NFL circles like you do Jacob Eason’s.
Defensively there is no competition. The Huskies are 46th in Fremeau Efficiency Index, while the Beavers are all the way down at 128th. In yards per play Washington holds the defensive YPP differential at +0.55. For what it’s worth Washington is also the better special-teams side. Add it all up and you have a situation where Oregon State has a small edge in offense and home-field advantage. Washington has the more accomplished coach (Chris Petersen mentored Jonathan Smith), a large talent discrepancy, a much stouter defense and a small boost from special teams.
Pick: Washington -10
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