NCAAF Friday night picks: Ohio State vs. Northwestern & 3 more

Ohio State has been one of the best teams in the country and has absolutely laid waste to every team it has faced. The Buckeyes are eyeing another Big Ten championship and much more. For its part Northwestern is just looking to get off the deck. The Wildcats are off to a rough start but have faced a very challenging schedule.

When you’re winning by an average of 40.5 points per game, usually quite a few things are going right, and that is exactly the case with Ohio State. Quarterback Justin Fields has compiled a fancy Heisman campaign (69.5% completion rate, 9.2 yards per attempt, 18-1 touchdown-interception ration, 188 QBR, 5.0 yards per carry, eight rushing touchdowns). He has an excellent duo behind him in the backfield with J.K. Dobbins and Master Teague III. Fields spreads the ball around well, as five wide receivers have 10+ receptions and 100+ yards. Couple these skill guys with an offensive line run blocking at a top 10 level (pass protection might need a bit of work, but some of that falls on the quarterback) and you’ve got a sizzling offense.

The Buckeyes have 61 tackles for loss, eight interceptions, 21 pass breakups and nine forced fumbles. The stars of the defensive unit are defensie end Chase Young (9 1/2 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles), cornerback Jeff Okudah (three interceptions), safety Jordan Fuller (leading tackler, two interceptions) and linebacker Malik Harrison (nine tackles for loss). As well as those standouts have played, the Buckeyes have a healthy rotation and regularly push 20 guys into action. The defense is experienced, talented and fresh.

I know all I’ve talked about is Ohio State, but this is a mismatch through and through. Northwestern is averaging 14.4 points per game, and when you’re averaging 14.4 points per game, you’re bad. So let’s devote this space to the Northwestern defense, which is decidedly not bad and is giving up 19.8 points per game.

It doesn’t matter how hard Northwestern’s defense plays or how many times it valiantly retakes the field. The Wildcats offense will bring nothing to the table. It will only be a matter of time before the scoreboard starts to bend and break in favor of the Buckeyes.

Pick: Ohio State -28

Marshall at Florida Atlantic (-4.5), 6:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN

This will be an interesting Conference USA battle. FAU’s losses are to Ohio State (24 points looks pretty good now!) and Central Florida. The Owls defeated common opponent Middle Tennessee by 15, whereas Marshall lost by 11. However, those results are misleading, because of enormous turnover disparities. The Owls are certainly capable of winning this game, but give me the better yards-per-play differential and the points.

Pick: Marshall +4.5

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Syracuse, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

The ACC has been quite the mess this season, and I expect that trend to continue. Pittsburgh has certainly been the better team so far this year, but it will be the recipient of Syracuse’s best game of the season in this spot. Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi is 2-5 off a bye.

Pick: Syracuse +3.5

UNLV at Fresno State (-15), 10 p.m. ET, CBSSN

I don’t generally like betting on historically bad teams (UNLV) off their best win in years (at Vanderbilt), but I can do so fairly comfortably here, even though I expect the Bulldogs to win.

Pick: UNLV +15

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