NCAAF Friday night pick: Navy vs. UConn
October 31st, 2019
The Navy Midshipmen lead the all-time series against the Connecticut Huskies 8-1 and enter their matchup Friday night as substantial favorites to increase that margin. Though they will defer the ESPN Gameday spotlight to their challengers SMU and Memphis this week, Navy is still very much in the mix for the AAC West Division crown. Their one loss on the year was at Memphis, so they will lose any tiebreak with the Tigers, but the Middies are already tied in the loss column and still get to face currently undefeated SMU later in the year.
Navy at UConn, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
Navy Midshipman | -27 (-110) | N/A | O 54.5 (-110) |
Connecticut Huskies | +27 (-110) | N/A | U 54.5 (-110) |
To stop Navy you’ve got to stop the running game—and no one has figured out how to do that this year. Navy has run for 214+ yards, averaged 4.28+ yards per carry and scored 2+ rushing touchdowns in every game this season. Don’t expect UConn to stop this chiseled ground attack. So how do the Huskies keep pace? Looking at Navy’s results, three opponents have been able to hang in games. We already mentioned the loss at Memphis. Navy also had close home wins against fellow option teams Air Force and Tulane. I found one common vein in each of these three games. Memphis, Air Force and Tulane were all able to average more than 10 yard per pass attempt against Navy. Navy’s other four opponents averaged less than 5.2 in that same metric. It is clear that you must pass the ball to challenge Navy defensively, and you must do so down the field.
UConn’s YPA passing on the season is 6.5. That’s better than the other four stiffs Navy dominated, but still well short of the three teams that threatened to beat them. The good news is that of the three quarterbacks UConn has trotted out this year, the one who is not on the injury report is the guy who has put together their best three performances—Jack Zergiotis. Unfortunately Zergiotis has the lowest YPA of UConn’s three QBs. Connecticut fans have to be encouraged by the way their team performed last week, when the Huskies thumped Massachusetts, but they are facing a much stiffer test in Ken Niumatalolo’s Navy squad.
This number feels about right. I lean Navy’s way, because I don’t trust UConn to follow up its best game of the year with another good game. The Huskies have just been too inconsistent over the last decade (or consistently bad, if you prefer to look at it that way). Navy should be able to run all over them, and I don’t believe UConn can hit enough down-the-field passes to keep pace. A big win here will set Navy up as the primary challenger for the division title.
UConn’s YPA passing on the season is 6.5. That’s better than the other four stiffs Navy dominated, but still well short of the three teams that threatened to beat them. The good news is that of the three quarterbacks UConn has trotted out this year, the one who is not on the injury report is the guy who has put together their best three performances—Jack Zergiotis. Unfortunately Zergiotis has the lowest YPA of UConn’s three QBs. Connecticut fans have to be encouraged by the way their team performed last week, when the Huskies thumped Massachusetts, but they are facing a much stiffer test in Ken Niumatalolo’s Navy squad.
This number feels about right. I lean Navy’s way, because I don’t trust UConn to follow up its best game of the year with another good game. The Huskies have just been too inconsistent over the last decade (or consistently bad, if you prefer to look at it that way). Navy should be able to run all over them, and I don’t believe UConn can hit enough down-the-field passes to keep pace. A big win here will set Navy up as the primary challenger for the division title.
Pick: Navy -27
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