Mountain West football picks: Fresno State vs. USC & 5 more

Fresno State at USC (-13.5), 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Pick: Fresno State +13.5

Jeff Tedford walked into Fresno State and reshaped the team into a 10-win program. As head coach Tedford went 10-4 in his first season in 2017, then improved to 12-2, with bowl victories to finish each season.

The Bulldogs led the West division of the Mountain West and won the conference championship game against Boise State before they defeated Arizona State in the Las Vegas Bowl in December. Fresno quarterback Marcus McMaryion (3,629 yards, 25 touchdowns) is gone, which leaves senior Jorge Reyna to take over as the starter for an offense missing a ton of pieces from last season. The defense introduces five new starters, as well.

USC hopes to jump-start its season in an effort to bounce back from a 5-7 campaign in 2018, as the Trojans adjusted to life without Sam Darnold. JT Daniels (2,672 yards, 14 touchdowns) got the starting job as a freshman last year but had trouble taking care of the ball and completed just 59.5% of his passes and was intercepted 10 times.

He will need to improve his accuracy and eliminate mistakes this season. If he can do that, he’ll have a talented receiving corps to capitalize on his development. Senior Michael Pittman Jr. and sophomore Amon-Ra St. Brown led the team with 758 and 750 yards, respectively, and Pittman reached the end zone six times last season, while St. Brown scored three times. No. 2 target Tyler Vaughns (674 yards, six TDs) is back, as well, as another solid option for Daniels in the passing game.

The Trojans need a win in Week 1 before they face the roughest part of their schedule, with games against Stanford in Week 2, a road trip to BYU, a home contest against No. 14 Utah in Week 4 and back-to-back road games at No. 13 Washington and No. 9 Notre Dame. They’ll get a win, but 13.5 points is too much to expect the offense to cover in Week 1.

Utah State at Wake Forest (-5), Friday, 8 p.m. ET, ACC Network

Pick: Utah State moneyline

Matt Wells led Utah State to an 11-2 record last season, but left for Texas Tech. The Aggies rehired Gary Andersen, who last coached in Logan in 2012, and return junior quarterback Jordan Love (3,567 yards, 32 TDs), though they lose a ton of talent on offense, including four offensive linemen. On defense, Utah State will continue to be strong. Jamie Newman will start at quarterback for Wake Forest after he jumped in at the position late last season, when Sam Hartman went down with an injury. The Demon Deacons have home-field advantage, but Utah State will pull out a win.

Purdue (-11) at Nevada, Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN

Pick: Nevada +11 

The Boilermakers earned national attention when they upset No. 2 Ohio State last season, but they were no match for a top 10 Auburn team in the Music City Bowl, which the Tigers won 63-14. Purdue is back with 13 starters, including leading receiver Rondale Moore (1,258, 12 TDs) but will transition a new quarterback into the offense. The problem is Purdue’s defense, and a young offensive line may create some issues, too. Nevada will give redshirt freshman Carson Strong the start Saturday, after Cristian Solano broke his hand in fall camp. Toa Taua will lead the run game and help keep the game close in Nevada’s home opener, but Purdue will come out on top.

Colorado Buffaloes (-13) vs. Colorado State Rams, Friday, 10 p.m., ESPN

Pick: Buffaloes -13.5

Georgia defensive coordinator Mel Tucker is the now head coach of Colorado, who’s had one winning season in the last decade. Tucker will debut at his new position Friday night in Mile High Stadium, the home of the Denver Broncos. Colorado State, meanwhile, is coming off its first losing season since 2012. The Buffaloes’ offense is led by senior quarterback Steven Montez (2,849 yards, 19 TDs) and junior wide receiver Laviska Shenault Jr. ( 1,011 receiving yards, 11 total TDs) and will go up against a Rams defense that allowed 36.8 points per game last season. The Buffaloes will have an easy time against their rival, which they’ve beaten in four straight meetings and 12 of the last 16 overall.

Boise State vs. Florida State (-4.5), Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

Pick: Seminoles moneyline

The Broncos head to Jacksonville for a neutral-site game against the Seminoles, who won just five games last year in Willie Taggart’s first season. Taggart appointed James Blackman as starter, who won the quarterback job as a freshman but took a back seat to Deondre Francois last year. Boise State has experience on the offensive line, with all five starters returning, but lost QB Brett Rypien and leading rusher Alexander Mattison (1,415 yards, 17 TDs). Defense will keep Boise State in the game, but the Seminoles will pull out a close win.

Missouri (-18) at Wyoming, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN

Pick: Wyoming +18

There’s not much hope for Wyoming in its home opener against a Missouri team that brought in Clemson transfer Kelly Bryant to replace Drew Lock, who is now with the Denver Broncos. Bryant inherits a talented offense that features lead rusher Larry Rountree (1,216 yards, 11 TDs) and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam (466 yards, six TDs). The Tigers defeated the Cowboys 40-13 last season and face a Wyoming team missing six starters from last year’s offense. Wyoming has the defense to keep the Tigers honest, though. With Missouri on the road and getting accustomed to the altitude and time zone change, take Wyoming plus the points.

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