Midshipmen heavily favored in Army-Navy Game, but should they be?

It’s time to salute the troops! Saturday will mark the 120th meeting between the Army and Navy football teams. Navy leads the series 60-52-7, but Army has won the last three games. Before Army’s streak Navy won 14 in a row (which is the longest winning streak in the series).

Earlier this year Navy defeated Air Force, 34-25, while Army lost to the Falcons, 17-13. This sets up an interesting dynamic for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. If Navy defeats Army, the Midshipmen will take the trophy back to Annapolis. If Army defeats Navy, there will be a three-way tie in the service-academy rivalry series, and the current possessor of the trophy retains it. And who currently possesses the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy? Army!

Army vs. Navy, 3 p.m. ET, CBS

Navy has had a significantly tougher schedule

The only other common opponent on the schedules was Tulane. Army lost to the Green Wave by nine points, and Navy won by three. The combined record of Army’s opponents is 70-76. Navy’s schedule has been significantly tougher (combined opponent record of 77-61).

The Midshipmen’s only losses came on the road at 12-1 Memphis and 10-2 Notre Dame. They also own two victories over 10-win teams (Air Force and SMU). Against a much tougher schedule, Navy outscored its opponents by 15.1 points per game and held a 1.23 yards-per-play edge.

Despite its losing record, Army outscored its opponents by 8 points per game and held a 0.33 yards-per-play advantage. Perhaps not so surprisingly, these are the top two teams in the NCAA in rushing (and Air Force is No. 3). But Navy is almost a full 50 yards per game better than the Black Knights.

Controlling the ground game will be key

The key stat to determining the outcome of this game is yards per carry. We already know both teams run the ball extremely well. Who can stop the run? Navy is allowing only 3.35 yards per carry. Army is slightly less stout in that regard, but still good at 4.24.

But against the two option teams on its schedule (Air Force and Tulane), Navy allowed 295 yards on 87 carries, with four touchdowns. That’s 3.39 yards per carry, or barely worse than they allow against worse rushing attacks. Against those same two opponents, Army allowed 322 yards and four TDs on 82 rushes. That’s 3.93 YPC—also quite good and even better than the Black Knights do against non-option attacks.

Army should keep things close

It’s clear Navy is the better team, but are they 10.5 points better? The Midshipmen have to be salty about three straight losses to their rivals. Most of the players at Navy have never beaten Army. If Army quarterback Kelvin Hopkins plays and finishes the game, I think taking the points is a winning ticket. If he doesn’t play, load up on Navy.

I hate to make it that simple, but this game is defined by quarterback play. Hopkins is a fearless leader and super competitor. He’s a guy who will get coach Jeff Monken that fourth-and-3 gamble.

This will be a fantastic game. It’s Navy’s turn to win, but don’t tell that to Army. The Black Knights have no bowl game to look forward to and a win here could salvage an otherwise disappointing season.

NCAAF free pick: Army +10.5

---

The Army-Navy game is the last contest of the regular season, but you can check out all the postseason bowl games at BetAmerica!