LSU vs. Alabama could determine Heisman Trophy winner

LSU Tigers quarterback Joe Burrow throws a screen pass against Mississippi State. (Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire)

Dan Halverson

November 4th, 2019

For maybe the first time in modern college football history, the top 5 favorites to win the Heisman trophy all spent the week watching from the couch. With Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, and Oklahoma all having bye weeks, all of our front-runners were left without an opportunity to further impress voters. With nobody playing, one might think that the odds for all the contenders would remain stagnant, but that has not been the case.

Following Week 9, LSU QB Joe Burrow led the race at +125. He's still the favorite, but has drifted up to +150. His counterparts, Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts and Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa both trail him at +300. Hurts took the biggest hit during the bye week, as he was +175 just a week ago.

Odds to win the Heisman Trophy

Player	School	Heisman Trophy Odds

Joe Burrow	LSU	+150
Tua Tagovailoa	Alabama	+300
Jalen Hurts	Oklahoma	+300
Justin Fields	Ohio State	+800
Chase Young	Ohio State	+1000

Young is moving on up

Further down the board, a pair of Ohio State players are fourth and fifth in odds. QB Justin Fields sits at +800 while defensive end Chase Young has made a late appearance in the race and sits at +1000. Young has been an interesting addition to the board as he makes a name for himself disrupting every offense he faces and leading the Ohio State defense to the lowest points per game numbers in all of college football.

4⃣ sacks, in one game?!

Watch all of Chase Young's QB takedowns ⬇️.@youngchase907 | @OhioStateFB pic.twitter.com/KSvqxXEdJ8
— Ohio State on BTN (@OhioStateOnBTN) October 26, 2019

While Young is launching himself up draft boards and the Heisman odds board with his stellar play, the history of the award has proven that he’s dead money on the board. If Ndamukong Suh couldn’t win the award, the precedent has been set. Suh had 85 tackles and 20.5 tackles for loss during his 2009 year. Young sits at just 29.5 tackles and 15.5 for loss.

Burrow is a deserving favorite

This Saturday’s matchup between Alabama and LSU will still go a long way in determining our post-Week 11 favorite. Burrow deserves to be the favorite to be this point, and I would argue after Week 11 regardless of outcome, but if LSU flops on the road in 2019’s game of the year at Alabama, Tua may earn preference and regain his spot at the top. Tagovailoa has had mid-season ankle surgery, however, and coming back for the first game since surgery against the #1 team in the nation will be no small feat.

Tua Tagovailoa will play against LSU this year on a bad ankle (if he plays)

In 2018, Tua played on a hurt knee that many thought would affect his game.

Here’s a video of Tua going full speed for a 44-yd rushing TD on a bad knee: https://t.co/cfNSmj2JCY
— AJ Spurr (@SpurrFM) October 29, 2019

All eyes will be on LSU vs. Alabama

Don’t be surprised if Alabama head coach Nick Saban begins the game relying on a power running game to ease Tagovailoa back into action. In what is setup to be a classic SEC battle in November, would it be any surprise if both coaches play more conservatively than they have all year. The Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and Alabama is 8-1 to the under coming off a bye. If this matchup follows those trends and both quarterbacks produce less than typical stats, Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts may get an opportunity to have the biggest game of Week 11.

Hurts is lurking

Hurts has 3,270 passing and rushing yards on the season and 34 touchdowns while Burrow has 2,930 total yards and 33 touchdowns. Much like Kyler Murray last year, Hurts is still positioned to win the award in the final hour should other top contenders slip-up. No matter what happens, however, we know that Week 11 will make for a fascinating week and go a long way toward determining this year’s winner.