LSU sits as 5.5-point favorite for CFP National Championship

It’s an all-Tiger matchup in the College Football Playoff National Championship, with 14-0 LSU set to challenge defending national champion Clemson on January 13 inside the Superdome.

The SEC champion is currently a 5.5-point favorite against Clemson, after LSU pummeled No. 4 Oklahoma, 63-28, in the CFP semifinal Saturday.

Clemson endured a tougher battle in its semifinal contest and needed a last-minute interception to hold off No. 2 Ohio State, 29-23.

#3 Clemson vs. #1 LSU, January 13, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

A team of destiny

All season LSU has appeared destined for a championship run in head coach Ed Orgeron’s fourth year at the helm. In the offseason Orgeron hired 30-year-old Joe Brady as the team’s passing-game coordinator and receivers coach to help build a seemingly unstoppable spread offense.

Transfer quarterback Joe Burrow became the second key piece to LSU’s tremendous success. The senior put up 5,208 yards through the air, passed for 55 touchdowns, added another four on the ground and earned the Heisman Trophy in a lopsided vote.

Burrow and the Tigers lead the nation in scoring (47.6 points per contest) and yards per game (560.8) and are second in passing yardage (390.2). In the semifinal against Oklahoma, LSU generated an astounding 532 yards receiving, while Burrow passed for seven TDs, which tied the record for the most in any college bowl game—all before halftime. He also added one more score on a two-yard run in the third quarter.

Perhaps most impressive has been LSU’s consistent dominance against a difficult schedule. The Tigers faced (at the time) No. 9 Texas, No. 7 Florida, No. 9 Auburn, No. 3 Alabama and No. 4 Georgia.

Clemson’s title defense

Clemson, on the other hand, enjoyed a cakewalk in 2019. The Tigers’ most difficult regular-season opponent, Texas A&M (ranked No. 12 at the time), fell 24-10 at Clemson in early September. Other than a razor-thin win over North Carolina, the ACC schedule hardly tested the 14-0 Tigers.

Sophomore quarterback Trevor Lawrence has yet to lose a game in his collegiate career, but the second-year starter looked shaky at times and had issues turning the ball over early in the season.

Since his two-interception outing against Louisville in late October, however, Lawrence hasn’t thrown a pick, though his accuracy dropped significantly against Ohio State in the semifinal.

Lawrence completed 54.5% of his passes against the Buckeyes defense, but he tossed a pair of touchdowns and ran for 107 yards and another score.

If he can keep up that type of production in the ground game, he could cause trouble for LSU’s middling defense.

Clemson’s pass defense may also play a factor against LSU, as the ACC squad ranks first in opponent passing yards per game (154.2).

Which Tigers will succeed?

It’s difficult to gauge how much of Clemson’s production is a product of its light schedule.

In Saturday’s semifinal the Tigers surrendered 196 rushing yards and 320 passing yards to Ohio State in a hard-fought, six-point win. Letting LSU expose Clemson’s defense in a similar fashion could spell doom.

LSU is 4-0 against the spread against teams with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral-site games. Clemson is 7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record and 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games overall.

The reigning champ is currently riding the longest active win streak in the FBS (29) and has carried a chip on its shoulder all season. Dabo Swinney's Tigers have also been on the CFP stage before and triumphed in two of their three appearances in the national title game.

The Tigers of the SEC may hold a disadvantage on defense, but the offense hasn’t skipped a beat all season and doesn't seem to be intimidated by anyone. It'll be a close fight to the finish, but Coach O and his team will bring a championship home to the Bayou.

Pick: LSU -5.5

---

Bet the College Football Playoff National Championship and the remaining bowl games left in January at BetAmerica!