Is Cal football as good as its 4-0 record?

The California Golden Bears are the No. 15 team in the nation, and almost no one saw it coming. In a surprise win over then-No. 14 Washington in Week 2, Cal squeezed by, 20-19, with a last-second field goal and put the nation on notice.

After last weekend’s 28-20 victory at Ole Miss—the Pac-12’s first road win against an SEC team since 2010—the 4-0 Golden Bears remain the only undefeated team in their conference. Is Cal as good as its record indicates, though?

The offense

In the Bears’ 7-6 campaign a season ago, Cal ranked 115th in offensive yards (344 per game), and 116th in points per game (21.5). Cal’s starting quarterback, Chase Garbers, played in 11 games in 2018 and completed 61.2% of his passes for 1,506 yards, 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

This season Garbers has struggled again with accuracy. His 57.3 completion percentage is 105th in the nation, but he has cut down his number of interceptions from four to two through the first four games of the season.

Cal is currently ranked 94th in total offense (371 yards per game) and averages 212.8 yards through the air (88th) and 158.5 on the ground (73rd).

Christopher Brown Jr. has broken free in his sophomore season as the lead back, with 335 yards rushing and three total touchdowns. Against UC Davis, he ran for 197 yards and a touchdown, then put up 80 yards on the ground against Washington to go along with 30 yards on four receptions.

Brown came out against North Texas before halftime and never returned in Cal’s 23-17 standoff victory in Week 3. The Bears failed to reach the end zone in the second half, and the Mean Green nearly pulled off a comeback while Brown sat out.

Brown was ineffective against Ole Miss, but Garbers stepped up for his best game of the early season. He completed 23-of-35 passes for 357 yards and four touchdowns.

One of Cal’s biggest issues on offense is the health of the line. Garbers was sacked three times against Washington, six times against North Texas and four times against Ole Miss.

The biggest improvement from last year is the team’s ability to take care of the ball. In 2018 Cal led the FBS with 31 turnovers but has just five through the first four games in 2019.

The defense

In 2018 Cal’s defense ranked second in interceptions (21) and 16th in opponent yards per game (319), but the Bears allowed their competition to score 21.3 points per game.

Cal returned much of its talent on defense in 2019. Senior linebacker Evan Weaver is back after he recorded 158 tackles last season, the second-most in college football. Against Ole Miss, Weaver tallied 22 total tackles—the most by an opposing player against an SEC team in more than 15 seasons. His final tackle of the day was the most crucial, as he kept Rebels quarterback John Rhys Plumlee out of the end zone as time expired.

The Bears are 15th in the nation in defensive efficiency, and they are allowing opponents 17.3 points per game. Their red-zone defense could use some improvement, as it’s allowed opposing offenses to score from within the 20-yard line at an 81.8% rate (64th in the nation).

The Bears are only winning by an average margin of 7.25 points per game, which pales in comparison to other undefeated teams. Ohio State has enjoyed a 44.5-point margin of victory through four games, while Wisconsin is outscoring opponents by an average of 43.7 points and Alabama is close behind at 39.2.

Looking ahead

Cal got past one of its toughest foes, Washington, unexpectedly, but the remaining schedule is still treacherous. The Bears face No. 13 Oregon and No. 19 Utah in October, with a game against Oregon State sandwiched in between. Home games against Washington State and USC are scheduled in November, followed by road contests at Stanford and UCLA.

On Friday, Arizona State comes to town after its first loss of the season to Colorado, 34-31, last weekend.

The Sun Devils are allowing opponents fewer points per game (16) and putting up more offensive yardage (374.7 yards per game) behind true freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels’ 1,073 yards passing.

The Bears are favored at home, but this may be the first taste of reality for Cal and a signal for what’s to come in the remainder of the season.

The Bears are off to a hot start, but don’t expect to see the streak continue much longer. Unless Garbers can play consistently and the Bears can find an answer in the run game when Brown is struggling, Cal is about the same squad it was last year. By the end of the year, the Bears may have another seven-win season.

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