Ian Book is the Heisman longshot you need to know about

When it comes to identifying wise Heisman wagers, it’s important to remember the mindset of those voting on the award. Very rarely is the award given to the player who is the most skilled, the most productive, the most desirable for the NFL draft or even the most impactful. Kyler Murray winning in 2018 after he led the NCAA in total quarterback rating yards, and touchdowns was very deserved but more the exception than the rule.

Heisman Trophy odds

Voters remember big plays from big games

Voters are looking for a couple things when they decide the award. For starters, they want a winner. Great players on teams with losing records get no traction and are not worth betting on.

Voters are also looking for exceptional performances. Looking back over the last 20 years of the award, college football fans with good memories should be able to remember at least one highlight from each of the winners. Those big plays made in big games have a greater impact on voting than higher statistical outputs in games with lesser value.

Team performance and "wow" moments are crucial

From a gambling perspective, we must only consider players in a couple categories. The player should either be a quarterback or an Alabama running back. They should play on a popular blue-blood college football program that ensures them multiple primetime games and maximum viewership. They should have a team and a schedule capable of winning at least 10 games. They must be capable of impressive if not overwhelming statistical output, and they must have a “wow” moment.

Book is a tremendous talent and leader

With all of these things in mind, the longshot I land on is Ian Book, the quarterback for Notre Dame. Book currently sits at +40000 and will get every opportunity to do all of the things necessary to win the award. He has already proven to be a tremendous talent and leader, as he led Notre Dame to an undefeated regular season in 2018 and a spot in the College Football Playoff.

In 2018 Book had fairly modest statistical output, but that’s because he sat behind Brandon Wimbush early in the season and lost time to injury, as well. Despite his absence for a third of the season, Book still produced 26 touchdown passes. If he can replicate his per-game touchdown ratio in 2019, he could get to 40 TDs, which would certainly put him in the conversation.

Book's accuracy is astounding

More importantly for me, however, is that he was the eighth most accurate quarterback in the country last year at 68.2%. Book also was 15th in yards per attempt, which puts him fifth among returning quarterbacks this year and is a great indicator of big-play ability. When healthy and at his best, he was the most underrated quarterback in the country in 2018.

Book and Notre Dame will get the opportunity to prove their worth in primetime road games against Georgia and Michigan. Those games will be his chance to deliver star power and wow the voters. If that happens +40000 on top-five quarterback will seem like a steal.

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