Heisman odds update: Is Trevor Lawrence already out of the race?

Is it too early to declare the preseason Heisman favorite, Trevor Lawrence, out of the race? That might seem a bit premature, but after Lawrence threw the ball only nine times for 94 yards Saturday against Charlotte, bettors and fans are realizing Clemson is so dominant in all facets of the game that Lawrence doesn't need to excel through this cakewalk of a regular season.

2019 Heisman Trophy odds

While Lawrence seems like an enticing pick at +1200, knowing he has been one of the favorites for nearly a year, the first four weeks have shown Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has no intention of forcing things.

In contrast, Alabama head coach Nick Saban is letting his prized quarterback air it out to the arsenal of receivers at his disposal. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for five touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, and as the Alabama schedule begins to toughen moving forward, he will be given more opportunities to use those receivers. Tagovailoa is now the favorite at +200, and while he deserves to be, this is too short a price for me in an extremely volatile market.

Taylor moves up the board

The big mover of the week was one I predicted in this column a week ago. Jonathan Taylor got banged up against Michigan but produced 203 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Taylor dropped from +1400 to +800 after Wisconsin's dominating performance, and I expect these odds to stay steady and maybe a dip a bit more—if he stays healthy. Wisconsin is dominating opponents in 2019, and Taylor is being recognized as the engine behind that domination. If Wisconsin can somehow run the table, Taylor will undoubtedly finish the season as one of the three finalists.

Burrow could be an underlay

Wisconsin running the table seems likelier than LSU, and that's why I believe +800 on Taylor is better value than the +300 offered on LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. Burrow has done nothing wrong and is second in the nation in passing yards, but we saw last year that one bad game can derail a Heisman campaign. Burrow's difficult games are still ahead of him.

The last name that might be of some intrigue is Ohio State's J.K. Dobbins, who is at +4000. Dobbins is fifth in the nation in rushing yards, makes electric plays on a top-five team and will get plenty of opportunities to continue to shine as the season progresses. Dobbins has cemented himself as the primary back in Columbus and deserves a mention as a longshot.

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