College Football Week 7 Preview - AP Top-25 Showdowns!
October 12th, 2018
Halfway home in the college football season and the top teams are pushing towards conference titles and a potential shot at the college football playoff. Three match-ups between teams ranked in the AP top 25 headlines the College Football Week 7 schedule.
No. 2 Georgia at No. 13 LSU (+7.5) – Georgia (6-0) remains unbeaten while LSU (5-1) returns home off its first loss of the season last week at Florida. The Dawgs play in Baton Rouge for the first time since 2009, and in fact, that year was the last time LSU lost a home game in October. The Tigers have won 20-straight home games in October, and this is Georgia’s toughest test against its most physical foe. Road wins at South Carolina and Missouri this season scoring 40+ points in each is impressive, but LSU’s defense and this environment will make it tougher on the ‘Dawgs . With this game at LSU followed by Florida, at Kentucky and Auburn, and it’s likely Georgia stumbles at least once. It could happen Saturday at Death Valley against the Bayou Bengals.
College Football Week 7 Pick – LSU +7.5
No. 7 Washington at No. 17 Oregon (+3.5) – Key PAC-12 North showdown in Eugene, and Washington (5-1) has crushed Oregon (4-1) each of the last two seasons, including 38-3 last year when the Ducks had its worst offensive performance in a decade. Turnovers were a significant issue for Oregon in that game and during last season, and did you know that teams that have a net turnover margin of +3 or more in a game this season are 48-6 ATS? Oregon enters this PAC-12 showdown off a bye, setting up a strong situation for a home underdog with rest and revenge if they won their last game. These puppies win 60% ATS in this large sample situation, with stronger subsets if the home dog is a winning team and in a dog of less than a touchdown. Washington allowed winless UCLA 422 yards last week in a non-covering 31-24 road win. The Huskies defense leads the PAC-12 led by an exceptional secondary, but it still only has 2 INT’s this season, and last week’s yardage and 3rd down conversions allowed to UCLA is a concern. So too is Washington’s poor punting game ranking near the bottom in net average. The Quack Attack offense is strong and balanced rushing for 196 and passing for 293 per game thanks to an elite offensive line and big, strong QB Justin Herbert. The Ducks as home dog with rest improve to 7-0 ATS in that role with a huge home win.
College Football Week 7 Pick – Oregon +3.5
No. 15 Wisconsin at No. 12 Michigan (-9) – Prime Time Saturday night college football in the Big House, where Michigan (5-1) is tied atop the East division at 3-0. Wisconsin (4-1) leads the West division at 2-0, but the Badgers will have to figure out a way to run the ball effectively to keep drives alive against Michigan’s No. 1 defense allowing just 230 yards per game. Wisconsin does feature the nations No. 4 rushing attack running for 287 YPG, and star sophomore RB Jonathan Taylor has rushed for at least 100 yards in all five Badgers games this season. That’s the kind of profile we like in an underdog that can control the ball, clock and chains. But it won’t happen consistently against the Wolverines' elite defense which is allowing just 2.6 yards per rush. Prime Time underdogs are 7-1 SU and ATS this season, but the one loss was last week when Virginia Tech could not protect its home turf in a loss to Notre Dame. The Wolverines are taking lots of money in this match-up, and up to 9.5. We’ll follow the money.
College Football Week 7 Pick - Michigan -9.0
No. 2 Georgia at No. 13 LSU (+7.5) – Georgia (6-0) remains unbeaten while LSU (5-1) returns home off its first loss of the season last week at Florida. The Dawgs play in Baton Rouge for the first time since 2009, and in fact, that year was the last time LSU lost a home game in October. The Tigers have won 20-straight home games in October, and this is Georgia’s toughest test against its most physical foe. Road wins at South Carolina and Missouri this season scoring 40+ points in each is impressive, but LSU’s defense and this environment will make it tougher on the ‘Dawgs . With this game at LSU followed by Florida, at Kentucky and Auburn, and it’s likely Georgia stumbles at least once. It could happen Saturday at Death Valley against the Bayou Bengals.
College Football Week 7 Pick – LSU +7.5
No. 7 Washington at No. 17 Oregon (+3.5) – Key PAC-12 North showdown in Eugene, and Washington (5-1) has crushed Oregon (4-1) each of the last two seasons, including 38-3 last year when the Ducks had its worst offensive performance in a decade. Turnovers were a significant issue for Oregon in that game and during last season, and did you know that teams that have a net turnover margin of +3 or more in a game this season are 48-6 ATS? Oregon enters this PAC-12 showdown off a bye, setting up a strong situation for a home underdog with rest and revenge if they won their last game. These puppies win 60% ATS in this large sample situation, with stronger subsets if the home dog is a winning team and in a dog of less than a touchdown. Washington allowed winless UCLA 422 yards last week in a non-covering 31-24 road win. The Huskies defense leads the PAC-12 led by an exceptional secondary, but it still only has 2 INT’s this season, and last week’s yardage and 3rd down conversions allowed to UCLA is a concern. So too is Washington’s poor punting game ranking near the bottom in net average. The Quack Attack offense is strong and balanced rushing for 196 and passing for 293 per game thanks to an elite offensive line and big, strong QB Justin Herbert. The Ducks as home dog with rest improve to 7-0 ATS in that role with a huge home win.
College Football Week 7 Pick – Oregon +3.5
No. 15 Wisconsin at No. 12 Michigan (-9) – Prime Time Saturday night college football in the Big House, where Michigan (5-1) is tied atop the East division at 3-0. Wisconsin (4-1) leads the West division at 2-0, but the Badgers will have to figure out a way to run the ball effectively to keep drives alive against Michigan’s No. 1 defense allowing just 230 yards per game. Wisconsin does feature the nations No. 4 rushing attack running for 287 YPG, and star sophomore RB Jonathan Taylor has rushed for at least 100 yards in all five Badgers games this season. That’s the kind of profile we like in an underdog that can control the ball, clock and chains. But it won’t happen consistently against the Wolverines' elite defense which is allowing just 2.6 yards per rush. Prime Time underdogs are 7-1 SU and ATS this season, but the one loss was last week when Virginia Tech could not protect its home turf in a loss to Notre Dame. The Wolverines are taking lots of money in this match-up, and up to 9.5. We’ll follow the money.
College Football Week 7 Pick - Michigan -9.0
Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.
ADVERTISEMENT
