College Football Week 6 Picks - Red River Rivalry and More!
The Red River Rivalry between #20 Texas and #5 Oklahoma starts Saturday off with a bang while #7 Notre Dame’s battle against #23 Virginia Tech in primetime ends the day. Check out my breakdowns for my favorite matchups and soak in my college football Week 6 picks! - by DS Williamson
Saturday, Oct. 6
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide -35 at Arkansas Razorbacks Arkansas has no shot of keeping it close versus the best team in the nation. Unless Nick Saban decides to call off the Tide’s starters before the second quarter begins, Bama should cover the spread.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Alabama -35
#20 Texas Longhorns at #5 Oklahoma Sooners -8 In some rivalry games, you can go straight to the trends because no matter who the coaches and players are, the trends hold. The most important trend in the Red River Rivalry is Texas going 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. I’m not going against that trend.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Texas +8
#6 LSU Tigers -2.5 at Florida Gators Most of the action is all over the LSU Tigers at -2.5 to easily cover versus Florida. Bettors like LSU even though the game takes place in The Swamp, which leads me to believe that all the LSU money is smart money. I don’t like playing against smart money.
College Football Week 6 Picks: LSU -2.5
#4 Clemson Tigers -17.5 at Wake Forest Demon Deacons Undefeated Clemson’s one of the worst teams in college football against the spread. The only time Clemson covered was in their 49-21 road win over Georgia Tech. Clemson faces a team that averages 38.2 points per game on the road, which means the Tigers should have trouble again covering the spread. The health of freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence is also a concern for Clemson, so I'm leaning the other way.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Wake Forest +17.5
Florida State Seminoles at #17 Miami Hurricanes -13 This should be a big rivalry game, but it isn’t in 2018. Blame Florida State who’s just a bad football team that can only beat other bad football teams. The Hurricanes won’t let up against their fiercest rival, pummeling FSU by more than 20.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Miami -13
Iowa State Cyclones at #21 Oklahoma State Cowboys -10.5 Oklahoma State’s been great against the spread this season with a 4-1 ATS record while the Iowa State Cyclones have been an awful bet, going just 1-3 ATS on the year. Sometimes, it makes no sense to look for something that doesn’t exist. Don't waste your time scouring for reasons to back the Cyclones.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Oklahoma State -10.5
San Diego State Aztecs at #24 Boise State Broncos -14.5 I had no clue about San Diego State at Boise State before checking out the trends. The trends tell me that this one could go either way, save for what I believe is the most significant trend. Did you know San Diego State is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with Boise State? I didn’t either. To top it off, the Aztecs are 5-2 ATS when playing on the road and 9-3 ATS in their last 11 roadies against a winning home team. Couple that with the Broncos' record of just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games and this monster spread is worth taking.
College Football Week 6 Picks: San Diego State +14.5
#15 Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M Aggies -5.5 It amazes me that after wins over Florida in The Swamp and at Mississippi State, odds makers still don’t believe in the Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky’s defense allows less than 13 points per game on average. The Aggies will have plenty of trouble scoring in this game. It's time we all took Kentucky seriously.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Kentucky +5.5
#9 Auburn Tigers -3.5 at Mississippi State Bulldogs Auburn doesn’t always cover the spread, but they’re usually double-digit favorites. I’d play Auburn at anything less than -7 because the Tigers’ defense should dominate Mississippi State’s offense.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Auburn -3.5
#7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish -7 at #23 Virginia Tech Hokies If Notre Dame beats Virginia Tech, they could go undefeated this season. It’s tough to beat the Hokies in Blacksburg, though. Even if VA Tech doesn’t win on the money line, they’re 6-1 ATS in their last 7 versus a team with a winning road record. The Hokies win this one ATS while the Irish keep their undefeated record intact.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Virginia Tech +7
Saturday, Oct. 6
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide -35 at Arkansas Razorbacks Arkansas has no shot of keeping it close versus the best team in the nation. Unless Nick Saban decides to call off the Tide’s starters before the second quarter begins, Bama should cover the spread.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Alabama -35
#20 Texas Longhorns at #5 Oklahoma Sooners -8 In some rivalry games, you can go straight to the trends because no matter who the coaches and players are, the trends hold. The most important trend in the Red River Rivalry is Texas going 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. I’m not going against that trend.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Texas +8
#6 LSU Tigers -2.5 at Florida Gators Most of the action is all over the LSU Tigers at -2.5 to easily cover versus Florida. Bettors like LSU even though the game takes place in The Swamp, which leads me to believe that all the LSU money is smart money. I don’t like playing against smart money.
College Football Week 6 Picks: LSU -2.5
#4 Clemson Tigers -17.5 at Wake Forest Demon Deacons Undefeated Clemson’s one of the worst teams in college football against the spread. The only time Clemson covered was in their 49-21 road win over Georgia Tech. Clemson faces a team that averages 38.2 points per game on the road, which means the Tigers should have trouble again covering the spread. The health of freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence is also a concern for Clemson, so I'm leaning the other way.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Wake Forest +17.5
Florida State Seminoles at #17 Miami Hurricanes -13 This should be a big rivalry game, but it isn’t in 2018. Blame Florida State who’s just a bad football team that can only beat other bad football teams. The Hurricanes won’t let up against their fiercest rival, pummeling FSU by more than 20.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Miami -13
Iowa State Cyclones at #21 Oklahoma State Cowboys -10.5 Oklahoma State’s been great against the spread this season with a 4-1 ATS record while the Iowa State Cyclones have been an awful bet, going just 1-3 ATS on the year. Sometimes, it makes no sense to look for something that doesn’t exist. Don't waste your time scouring for reasons to back the Cyclones.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Oklahoma State -10.5
San Diego State Aztecs at #24 Boise State Broncos -14.5 I had no clue about San Diego State at Boise State before checking out the trends. The trends tell me that this one could go either way, save for what I believe is the most significant trend. Did you know San Diego State is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with Boise State? I didn’t either. To top it off, the Aztecs are 5-2 ATS when playing on the road and 9-3 ATS in their last 11 roadies against a winning home team. Couple that with the Broncos' record of just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games and this monster spread is worth taking.
College Football Week 6 Picks: San Diego State +14.5
#15 Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M Aggies -5.5 It amazes me that after wins over Florida in The Swamp and at Mississippi State, odds makers still don’t believe in the Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky’s defense allows less than 13 points per game on average. The Aggies will have plenty of trouble scoring in this game. It's time we all took Kentucky seriously.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Kentucky +5.5
#9 Auburn Tigers -3.5 at Mississippi State Bulldogs Auburn doesn’t always cover the spread, but they’re usually double-digit favorites. I’d play Auburn at anything less than -7 because the Tigers’ defense should dominate Mississippi State’s offense.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Auburn -3.5
#7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish -7 at #23 Virginia Tech Hokies If Notre Dame beats Virginia Tech, they could go undefeated this season. It’s tough to beat the Hokies in Blacksburg, though. Even if VA Tech doesn’t win on the money line, they’re 6-1 ATS in their last 7 versus a team with a winning road record. The Hokies win this one ATS while the Irish keep their undefeated record intact.
College Football Week 6 Picks: Virginia Tech +7
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