College Football Week 10 odds, picks and viewing guide

It’s fair to say this has been the fastest college football season in quite some time. November typically feels like the final lap of an eventful and upset-filled rat race, yet with such an irregular cadence of conference kickoffs, we’re already here.

As cold dark nights cover Big Ten country, and dormant brown grass creeps onto the playing fields in the south, games start to mean more.

Let’s break down three of the most meaningful games for Week 10.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State

The Big 12 race is as exciting this year as it has been at any point in recent memory, with bluebloods Texas and Oklahoma faltering early on to create unanticipated drama in the race.

With three teams now sitting with one loss (Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State), this Saturday’s matchup between Kansas State and Oklahoma State will go a long way to not only separate one of them from the others, but likely eliminate the loser.

With Oklahoma and Texas sitting in a stalking position of the top three, a defeat would put any of the current frontrunners back to their traditional mid-pack position in the conference.

On Saturday afternoon, Oklahoma State heads to Kansas State as 13-point favorites. Oklahoma State is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS, while Kansas State is 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS.

Oklahoma State has had the best defense in the Big 12 this year, giving up 17.8 points per game. The Cowboys lost last week to Texas in a game that at one point Oklahoma State held a commanding 97% post-game win expectancy position. The Cowboys were clearly the better team, though, and have still looked the most consistent in the conference this year.

Kansas State has succeeded in all three facets of the game in 2020 to get to 4-1 in the conference, but freshman quarterback Will Howard looked bad against West Virginia, as he went 19-of-36 passing with three interceptions. The Wildcats also failed to get dynamic running back Deuce Vaughn involved.

Vaughn is the engine for the Kansas State offense, but Oklahoma State will have the personnel to slow him down, just like WVU was able to do.

Things will likely get ugly, as Kansas State's Big 12 title chances disintegrate due to a lack of offensive firepower.

Pick: Oklahoma State -13

Florida vs. Georgia

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will take on a different atmosphere this year, with social distancing and limited capacity, but one thing will feel familiar: the Georgia Bulldogs will take on the Florida Gators with the SEC East likely on the line.

Georgia enters at 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS, while Florida is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. Georgia is a 3.5-point favorite and has won the last three matchups. Interestingly, three-game win streaks have become a pattern, with Florida winning the prior three before Georgia’s current win streak. Georgia won the three before that, and Florida the three before that — a promising trend for Florida backers hoping for a reversal of fortune.

Florida has been a potent offense in 2020, coming in third of all NCAA teams in points per play. Quarterback Kyle Trask is playing well and has great weapons in tight end Kyle Pitts and utility wide receiver Kadarius Toney.

The defense, however, has left much to be desired, giving up 5.6 yards per play to opponents on the season. They looked better last week against Missouri, but are likely in for a tougher task against the Bulldogs.

Georgia hasn’t looked as good in 2020 compared to its 2018 and 2019 campaigns, but some of that could be contributed to breaking in new quarterback Stetson Bennett. Bennett has a number of weapons to distribute the ball to, including running backs Zamir White and James Cook, plus his favorite weapon at receiver, Kearis Jackson.

Stetson will presumably get better with time. Georgia has had the No. 3, No. 1, No. 2, and No. 1 recruiting classes over the last four seasons and should overpower its rivals in a breakout game for Bennett.

Pick: Georgia -3.5

Arizona State vs. USC

The Pac-12 season finally kicks off this weekend in one of the oddest ways possible.

Arizona State travels to USC as 11-point underdogs with a 9 a.m. local start time. It wouldn’t be the strangest thing for a West Coast team to travel East and play what feels like an early game, but such an early actual start time is very rare.

While Stanford vs. Oregon gets the prime-time matchup, this game between Arizona State and USC will be equally important in the conference race.

USC was 8-4 straight up in the 2019 regular season and 6-5-1 ATS. The Trojans replaced injured starting quarterback JT Daniels with freshman Kedon Slovis, and he proved a very capable and talented replacement who earned Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year honors.

While he was successful against mediocre competition, Slovis and the Trojans proved incapable of defeating the tougher teams on their schedule, including BYU, Washington, Notre Dame, and Oregon. USC defeated Arizona State 31-26 in last year’s edition.

For Arizona State, a 7-5 straight-up record in regular-season play in 2019 was complicated with a 4-7-1 ATS record. After starting the season with a promising 5-1 SU record, the young Sun Devils experienced a four-game losing streak, before closing out strong with wins against #7 Oregon and UCLA.

ASU's game-changer is quarterback Jayden Daniels, who also had a successful first season, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards and 17 touchdowns against just two interceptions. He is a dual-threat in the sense that he excels at scrambling and completing passes while under pressure.

With neither team having any experience in 2020, USC is listed as a heavy favorite, thanks to the recurring sentiment that they’re a more talented roster overall. The Trojans have been a terrible favorite in recent history, however, with a 37% record against the spread.

I’ll take the points in an odd scenario against a consistently over-hyped program.

Pick: Arizona State +11

NCAAF betting trends

• Oklahoma State is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a straight-up loss.
• The total has gone Under in five of Oklahoma State's last seven conference games.
• The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games between Florida and Georgia.
• Georgia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite.
• Arizona State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at USC.

Wager on Week 10 of the college football season now at BetAmerica.