The College Football Playoff Picture - Week 11

The College Football Playoff (CFP) picture is clearing up, and the top two teams, No. 1 Alabama (9-0) and No. 2 Clemson (9-0) are nearly assured of making the final four even with a single loss. Joining them are eternal rivals No. 3 Notre Dame and No. 4 Michigan. The chase for the other two spots remains between the teams below, as the NCAAF Championship outlook is down to nine Power 5 conference teams with a chance to win the national championship. The current picture looks like this:

College Football Playoff Rankings Top-10

Week 11 NCAAF Championship Odds
Team	Record	Preseason Odds	Week 11 Odds
1. Alabama Crimson Tide	9-0	+250	-300
2. Clemson Tigers	9-0	+600	+350
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish	9-0	+3300	+800
4. Michigan Wolverines	8-1	+900	+675
5. Georgia Bulldogs	8-1	+750	+1200
6. Oklahoma Sooners	7-2	+1800	+1800
7. LSU Tigers	7-2	+2500	n/a
8. Washington State Cougars	8-1	+15000	+6600
9. West Virginia Mountaineers	7-1	+3300	+8000
10. Ohio State Buckeyes	8-1	+750	+1400

So 9 teams from the power conferences remain and, at the start of the season, all but one of these teams were expected to contend for the CFB playoff and national championship. LSU is ranked No. 7 in the current CFB Playoff poll, but the Tigers (7-2) have two losses and are very unlikely to make the playoffs, which is why they're not even getting championship odds this week.

But No. 8 Washington State is the biggest surprise as the Cougars were +15000 to win the national championship at the start of the season. Major props to head coach Mike Leach again, as he has Washington State in position to challenge for the Pac-12 championship and also sneak into the CFB playoff with some help. Washington State was also the only team in the country that had covered the spread in every game until this last weekend, as the Cougars (-8) won but failed to cover against California in a 19-13 home win. Washington State is now 8-1 SU/ATS.

Alabama is running away with every futures market from the SEC championship, to the national championship to the Heisman.

Here’s how the remaining schedules look and what to expect:

• Alabama will likely play Georgia in the SEC championship game. The Crimson Tide will make the CFP playoff even if they lose and it’s just their first loss of the season. Georgia will be eliminated from the CFP playoff with a loss, but three more wins plus a Bulldogs upset of the ‘Tide would likely put Georgia into the CFP playoff and send two SEC teams into the chase for the national championship.
• Notre Dame is in if they remain undefeated and beat Florida State, Syracuse and win on the road at USC. A loss sends the Irish to a New Year’s Day bowl but out of the CFP championship chase.
• The huge Big Ten rivalry Nov. 24 when Ohio State hosts Michigan will eliminate the loser from the CFP playoff. A Wolverines win combined with a Big Ten championship game win over Northwestern likely gets Michigan into the CFB playoff. Ohio State needs help even if they beat Michigan and Northwestern.
• The Big-12 game between Oklahoma and West Virginia Nov. 23 is an elimination game for the loser, and the Sooners have the best chance to make the CFB playoff if they can also win the Big 12 championship game and finish 12-1. .
• Washington State is a wild card needing the most help. The Cougars must win out, at Colorado and home vs. Arizona and rival Washington, then win the Pac-12 championship game over Utah or USC. Then, they need the other teams in front of them to lose, so those teams would have 2 losses.

The chase and chaos continues for the NCAAF championship through November, and even with inflated point spreads on these College Football Playoffs championship contenders, understand that many of these teams will try to ‘pile on’ the points in pursuit of the CFB playoff.