College Football Picks Week 7: Top 3 Best Bet and Parlays
BATON ROUGE, LA - SEPTEMBER 28: LSU Tigers linebacker Whit Weeks (40) enters the field before a college football game between the LSU Tigers and the South Alabama Jaguars on September 28, 2024, at Tiger Stadium, in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by John Korduner/Icon Sportswire)
October 10th, 2024
The 2024 college football season does not lack excitement, with five of the top 11 ranked teams losing in Week 6, and YouBet has identified three games to wager upon in Week 7. Along with playing each game individually, we recommend a three-team parlay (+611) on the following games. All lines courtesy of BetMGM; times listed as Eastern.
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Texas vs. Oklahoma in Dallas (3:30 p.m.): Texas
We’re not buying Oklahoma’s offense, and Texas has already exposed a limited scheme, romping 31-12 over run-heavy Michigan in Ann Arbor. With quarterback Quinn Ewers returning, the top-ranked Longhorns won’t take anything for granted in the Red River Rivalry.
Texas ranks third nationally in total defense, allowing 228.2 yards per game, and it impressively held Michigan to 80 rushing yards on 23 carries. The Longhorns are dynamic offensively, averaging 45 points per game, and this game shapes up to be one-sided.
Oklahoma exits an emotional comeback win at Auburn, whose incompetence gifted the Sooners the game. Auburn dominated for more than three quarters (the Tigers outgained the visitors 482-291 in total yards) and was driving in Oklahoma’s territory up 21-10 in the fourth quarter when turnover-prone Payton Thorne (who has six interceptions this year and should not be passing in the fourth quarter with the lead) threw a pick-six, opening the floodgates to further incompetence from 2-4 Auburn.
That was as phony as a win gets; Oklahoma narrowly defeated Houston earlier this season because of a subpar rushing game and are punchless offensively. The Sooners switched to unheralded freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. (only 15 passes versus Auburn due to a limited scheme) in Week 4, but he’s not ready for top-level defenses like Texas.
Penn St. at USC (3:30 p.m.): USC
An improved USC defense led to an upset win over LSU in the opener, and the Trojans have proven dangerous when not on the road — 3-0 ATS at home/neutral-site venues. Away games are a different story; USC serves as a perfect example of the topsy-turvy nature of the 2024 college football season, playing the Mr. Hyde role on the road. Look for Dr. Jekyll in the LA Memorial Coliseum.
Penn St. has failed to cover three of the last four games, with hapless Kent St. being the exception, and the offense struggled to find momentum in wins over Bowling Green, Illinois, and UCLA. The Nittany Lions lack quality receivers (372 total passing yards in a pair of conference games) and while top running Nate Singleton (missed last week with injury) is expected back, he may not by 100%.
The defense remains elite, but Penn St. is built for close games with its pedestrian offense. And that makes the points attractive in this spot.
After being caught looking ahead last week at Minnesota, USC enters its biggest conference home game in rebound mode. Miller Moss has a big edge over counterpart Drew Allar, throwing for a combined 686 yards in wins over LSU and Wisconsin, and the Trojans have good balance averaging 150 rushing yards per game.
We give USC a legitimate chance to win straight up.
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Ole Miss at LSU (7:30 p.m.): LSU
Ole Miss was slowed down by Kentucky’s defense in an upset loss two weeks ago, but its offense wasn’t the biggest culprit. The Rebels were pushed around up front and surrendered too many first downs (22) and passing yards (243), consistently failing to get off the field defensively as they were dominated 39:43-20:17 in time of possession.
The Rebels have hidden their deficiencies in five blowout wins, but this isn’t a favorable matchup in Death Valley at night. LSU features one of the nation’s best offensive lines, Garrett Nussmeier is a quality quarterback (1,652 yards passing with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions over first five games), and the Tigers are improved defensively behind new coordinator Blake Baker.
Ole Miss remains explosive offensively, but we’re not keen on its offensive line and secondary. And the departure of Quinshon Judkins (transferred to Ohio St.) hurt.
It’s easy to appreciate the progress LSU has made since coughing up a late lead in the opener vs USC. And with an extra week to prepare, Nussmeier should attack a vulnerable secondary. Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches off a bye week (15-8-1 ATS), and we like the Tigers as home underdogs.
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