Camping World Bowl: Iowa State vs. Notre Dame preview and pick

On paper, the Camping World Bowl on Saturday, December 28 between Notre Dame and Iowa State looks to be a bit of a one-sided affair. The Fighting Irish rank 13th in the nation in scoring offense and 14th in scoring defense, giving up the third-fewest passing yards in the nation. While Iowa State’s offensive numbers aren’t that bad themselves, ranking 26th in scoring and ninth in passing yards per game, their defensive stats are slightly above average in most categories. They rank 67th in passing yards given up per contest.

Iowa State vs. Notre Dame odds

Notre Dame feasted on inferior competition

However, numbers can be a bit deceiving at times. In Iowa State’s defense, their record of 7-5 is a bit misleading as three of their five losses were by less than a field goal, including losses at Baylor and at Oklahoma. In Notre Dame’s case, their stats have been padded quite a bit by playing inferior competition. In their two losses to Georgia and Michigan, the Irish were held to 17 points or less. Furthermore, of the nine Power 5 teams they faced, six of those teams scored at least 20 points against them, and quarterback Ian Book was exposed against some of the better defenses he faced, throwing only 10 touchdowns to six interceptions against top-50 defenses.

Iowa State has had success slowing down the run

While Iowa State’s defense is not quite of that caliber, they held Texas QB Sam Ehlinger and Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts to under 300 yards passing each. More importantly, they ranked 36th in rushing yards allowed per game, which may limit the favored means of attack for Notre Dame. The Irish had three games in November where they rushed for more than 190 yards per contest, including 288 yards against Duke and 252 yards against Boston College. Iowa State will have to deal with multiple players running the ball, including Book, so it will be pivotal for them to slow down the run like they did against Texas, where they held the Longhorns to just over two yards per carry in the upset win.

Purdy is poised for a big game

The one area where Iowa State has a major advantage is that their quarterback, Brock Purdy, is a much more reliable player than Book is for Notre Dame. Against two of the best defenses in the nation in Baylor and Iowa, Purdy averaged over 300 yards and threw only one interception, while completing nearly 65% of his throws. However, given Notre Dame’s pass defensive prowess, he will need help from his running game to win this one. In their season-ending 10-point loss to Kansas State, the Cyclones rushed for only 51 yards on 24 carries, and Purdy had one of his poorer performances of the season, with only 185 yards on 15-of-30 passing.

In the end, I like the Fighting Irish to cover in this one. While Purdy is the better signal-caller, Notre Dame has the better balanced offense, and the superior defense. While the Cyclones are not nearly as overmatched as the raw numbers would have you believe, Notre Dame will win this game by a touchdown and cover the spread as a favorite for the fifth straight contest.

NCAAF free pick: Notre Dame -3.5

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