Big Ten picks: #14 Michigan vs. Maryland & 2 more

November 1st, 2019

In what was in many ways the marquee week of the season for the Big Ten last week, we went a disappointing 2-5 as Ohio State once again reminded us why only a fool would pick against them, Penn State continued to roll despite a tough scheduling spot, and Michigan actually showed up in a big game. Now 23-21-1 on the season, we’ll look to rebound this weekend with only a handful of teams in action.

#14 Michigan (-21) at Maryland

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total

Michigan Wolverines	-21 (-115)	-1275	O 56 (-110)
Maryland Terrapins	+21 (-105)	+725	U 56 (-110)

You have to give Michigan credit for finally showing up in a big game last week against Notre Dame. Granted, the sloppy conditions were a nice bonus for the Wolverines, as they followed their blueprint for success in playing lights out defense, running for 303 yards, and allowing the questionable Shea Patterson to only throw 12 times. That’s a winning formula for Jim Harbaugh’s club, and considering Maryland is coming off a game in which Minnesota rushed for 321 yards in the Gophers’ 52-10 thrashing of the Terrapins, Michigan has to like the match-up. I certainly understand if you just want to lay the points with Michigan and bet that Maryland is going to lay down again as they’ve done for much of the season. However, I’m going to take Maryland in this situation for a number of reasons.

Michigan gets back on track with a 45-14 win over No. 8 Notre Dame. @SheaPatterson_1 said it was a little revenge for last year’s game. pic.twitter.com/66MYhyDLhk
— Maria Taylor (@MariaTaylor) October 27, 2019

Let’s start with the fact that this is a classic let-down spot for Michigan as they come off the big win against Notre Dame (a win Jim Harbaugh has been desperate to get since arriving in Ann Arbor), and now have to go on the road to play a 9:00 a.m. game against a 3-5 Maryland team. Not exactly an easy game to get up for.

Despite getting embarrassingly blown out in several games this year, this is still a Terrapins squad that has some talent and has played well in some big-time games, most notably the two wins over Texas in recent years and the 52-51 OT loss against Ohio State last season. In that OSU game, running back torched the Buckeyes by rushing for 281 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries (14.2 yards per rush). And with McFarland returning from a high ankle sprain last week and speedy sidekick Javon Leake ready to bust one open at any time, Maryland has a chance to keep this game competitive with its talented 1-2 punch in its backfield.

Lastly, and perhaps most interesting, it seems this match-up may be personal for Terps HC Mike Locksley and the Wolverines offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. The two coaches were close last year while both on the staff at Alabama, but things deteriorated when Gattis spurned Locksley and Maryland when Harbaugh offered him the OC job at Michigan. It appears Locksley took offense to the credit Gattis was claiming for Alabama’s offensive success last year. It’s an interesting wrinkle that I think will work in Maryland’s favor as I believe Locksley will be fired up and motivated to get the best effort out of his team this week.

Of course, this easily could be a game in which Michigan dominates physically, jumps out to a quick 14-0 lead, and I’m left talking to myself and tweeting for the millionth time about how terrible of a coach Locksley is. What can I say? I’m a glutton for punishment. Give me the Terps +21 with a little sprinkle on the +725 ML.

Free pick: Maryland +21

Nebraska (-3.5) at Purdue

I’m going to roll with Nebraska in this one, largely because the Cornhuskers get star quarterback Adrian Martinez back this week and do-it-all freshman Wan’Dale Robinson continues to show out. The only hesitation I have is the possible return of electric wide receive Rondale Moore for Purdue, but it’s still dicey whether he will actually take the field on Saturday. October wasn’t kind to Scott Frost’s squad, but I think the Huskers get back on track this week against the decimated Boilermakers.

Free pick: Nebraska -3.5

Northwestern at Indiana (-11)

This match-up simply comes down to momentum for me, or the lack of it in regards to Northwestern. With Indiana capturing its sixth win of the season and becoming bowl-eligible last week in its victory at Nebraska, Hoosiers head coach Tom Allen has been emotional in talking about the need for the IU faithful to show up this weekend and support this improved Indiana team. And whether it’s Peyton Ramsey or Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, it won’t matter, because IU will score enough to cover the spread against this offensively-challenged Northwestern team. Hoosiers win by at least two touchdowns.