Big Ten football picks: Northwestern vs. Stanford & 5 more

Pick: Stanford -6.5

If I told you there was a team in the country that has won 15 of its last 16 regular-season games, you’d probably never guess Northwestern. And yet the perennial overachiever holds this impressive statistic. As we look ahead to the Wildcats' matchup against Stanford in Week 1, the initial instinct has to be to back them at +6.5.

But when we dive into the matchup a bit more, it seems that the intuitive easy underdog pick may not be such a great idea. Northwestern under head coach Pat Fitzgerald consistently takes lesser-ranked recruits and turns them into capable Division I players, but there are a couple big question marks for Fitzgerald heading into 2019. Three of his offensive lineman are gone from 2018, and there may be some growing pains for this new unit. The line is the first place that can sink an offensive ship, so if things are rocky up front, the rest of the unit won’t function. Facing a Stanford team that traditionally has a very tough defensive line, I predict struggles. Stanford brings leading tackler Michael Williams back, as well as two other starters, Thomas Booker and Jovan Swann.

On the other side of the ball, Northwestern lost its best defensive back, Montre Hartage. Stanford's K.J. Costello was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country last year and will be one of the top five returning QBs in terms of yards per pass attempt from 2018. He has a strong arm and may be able to take advantage of a Northwestern secondary adapting to life without its star. In a battle of hard-nosed football teams with traditional coaching strategies, I like Stanford at home to cover.

Here are some other Big Ten picks for Week 1.

Tulsa at Michigan State (-23.5), Friday, 7 p.m. ET, FS1

Pick: Tulsa +23.5

Michigan State always seems to struggle early in the year against opponents it should dominate.

UMass at Rutgers (-15.5), Friday, 7:15 p.m., Big Ten Network

Pick: Rutgers -15.5

This is a terrible line relative to what it opened at (-11.5), but the Scarlet Knights are in for a rough year and this will be one the few times they will get to flex their muscles. The Rutgers defense isn’t terrible, and I expect this team that is not yet beaten down from a season of Big Ten play to demonstrate it still has major-conference clout.

South Alabama at Nebraska (-35.5), Saturday, noon ET, ESPN

Pick: Nebraska -35.5

Get the hype rolling early after the Huskers, quarterback Adrian Martinez, and running back Dedrick Mills (a hard-charging Georgia Tech transfer) break open multiple big runs on their way to a home victory. The Cornhuskers want to score a lot and score fast, and when they can do it against a weaker opponent, they will.

Akron at Illinois (-18), Saturday, noon ET, Big Ten Network

Pick: Akron +18

While I don’t mind laying points with Rutgers, I want no part of 18 points with Illinois.

Miami-Ohio at Iowa (-22), Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, FS1

Pick: Miami-Ohio +22

The Hawkeyes might be tough enough on defense to completely shut down Miami, but I don’t expect Iowa to score a lot. Big losses to the NFL could have Iowa starting slowly on offense in 2019.

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