Big Ten football picks: Michigan State vs. Ohio State & 5 more

The roller coaster ride continued last week, as we followed up our perfect 5-0 week with a disappointing 2-4 weekend. That puts our overall record for the season at 12-10. It's another tricky set of matchups this week, headlined by the Michigan State-Ohio State clash at the Horseshoe in prime time (all games Saturday).

#25 Michigan State at #4 Ohio State (-19.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

In the four weeks I've been making these picks, I'm 1-3 on Ohio State games. The Buckeyes have crushed me all three times I've gone against them.

Justin Fields has emerged as a serious Heisman contender, and Ohio State is averaging 52 points per game, which puts them on pace to be the highest scoring team in school history.

However, after facing a number of pretenders in Cincinnati, Indiana and Nebraska, the unstoppable force that has been the OSU offense will meet one of the best defensive units in the country. Giving up 31 points to Indiana last week wasn't an inspiring performance, but I expect a more focused effort this week from Michigan State in Columbus.

I'm also confident senior quarterback Brian Lewerke will do just enough with both his arm and his legs to move the sticks consistently and keep the game surprisingly competitive.

It's clear the Spartans offensive line will be a major concern, especially against a dominating OSU defensive line led by Chase Young, who has been an absolute monster this year. But I'm betting/praying the impressive front seven of Michigan State's defense plays big, turns Fields into a passer and does enough to keep the game close. Perhaps Under is the play, but I'm sheepishly siding with the Spartans and the points.

Pick: Michigan State +19.5

#14 Iowa at #19 Michigan (-4), noon ET, FOX

The Wolverines have done next to nothing so far this season to earn our trust, but the return of dynamic wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones is a game changer for the offense and on special teams as a punt returner. This is certainly a capable Iowa squad, but Jim Harbaugh is desperate for a big win, and Michigan will play to that desperation. The Wolverines win by at least a touchdown.

Pick: Michigan -4

Northwestern at Nebraska (-7.5), 4 p.m. ET, FOX

Scott Frost's team was a taught a tough and embarrassing lesson about by Ohio State last week, I'll look for the young Cornhuskers to lick their wounds and bounce back against a Northwestern team that is absolutely brutal on offense.

Pick: Nebraska -7.5

Purdue at #12 Penn State (-28.5), noon ET, ESPN

Coming off its 59-0 throttling of Maryland last week, my worry is Penn State will be unfocused for this game against the struggling Boilermakers. But with Purdue's starting quarterback, Elijah Sindelar, and electric wide receiver Rondale Moore out for this game, I'm betting the Nittany Lions continue their impressive start to the season with a lopsided win.

Pick: Penn State -28.5

Kent State at Wisconsin #8 (-34.5), noon ET, ESPNU

I don't know if oddsmakers could make this line big enough. Kent State has already lost to Arizona State by 23 and Auburn by 39. I'm expecting a result closer to the latter—48-10 sounds about right.

Pick: Wisconsin -34.5

Illinois at Minnesota (-14), 3:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network

With the Gophers off to a 4-0 start, coach P.J. Fleck certainly has this Minnesota program headed in the right direction. However, those four wins have come by a combined 20 points, and I'm expecting another tight game this week, as a fired-up Illinois team off a bye will look to steal a win in conference play. I expect Minnesota to win, but it'll be close.

Pick: Illinois +14

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