Big Ten football picks: #5 Ohio State vs. Nebraska & 5 more

After an up-and-down start to the season, we went 5-0 last week, with the Illinois +380 moneyline just out of grasp. It’s nice to feel like we know what we’re talking about every once in awhile, but as we know, this game has a way of humbling you in a hurry. So let’s put last week in the rear-view mirror and focus on the task at hand with the Big Ten games this weekend.

#5 Ohio State (-17) at Nebraska, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

The easiest bet in football the last three weeks has been just taking the Buckeyes, who have have beaten Cincinnati, Indiana and Miami-Ohio by an average of 51.3 points per game and covered the spread by an average of 27 points.

It’s a no-brainer then, right? As the lovable Lee Corso says, “Not so fast, my friend!” With College GameDay rolling into Lincoln, this is the kind of marquee matchup that Nebraska fans have been dreaming about since Scott Frost returned home. And although it may be a year too early, talented quarterback Adrian Martinez, impressive running back Maurice Washington, do-everything freshman wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson (who had a huge second half against Illinois) and a juiced-up crowd in Lincoln will give this Ohio State squad its first test of the season. The Buckeyes defense has been lights out the last three weeks, but this young and talented Nebraska offense can do enough to stay competitive

Even though Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields is making a bid for the Heisman and J.K. Dobbins is a freight train out of the backfield, the  Nebraska defense will step up to the challenge and home-field advantage will be enough to keep this one close. A program-changing upset may be too much to ask at this point in Frost’s rebuilding process, but the Huskers will make the Buckeyes earn it.

Pick: Nebraska +17

#12 Penn State (-6.5) at Maryland, Friday, 8 p.m. ET, FS1

I’ve loved Maryland quarterback Josh Jackson since 2017, when he started as a redshirt freshman at Virginia Tech. And even though he struggled in the Terps’ loss to Temple two weeks ago, I expect the son of longtime Michigan assistant coach Fred Jackson to bounce back against a Penn State secondary that gave up 372 passing yards to Pittsburgh. I like this talented and underrated Maryland team to not only cover, but pull off the outright upset (+190 on the moneyline).

Pick: Maryland +6.5

Northwestern at #8 Wisconsin (-24), Saturday, noon ET, ABC

Taking this bad Northwestern team in this spot is strictly a situational play. I’m betting the Badgers let down a bit, after their statement win over Michigan last week. A decent front seven for the Wildcats, led by linebacker Paddy Fisher, can keep Jonathan Taylor in check just enough to cover. Northwestern lost to Michigan State 31-10 last week and I expect a similar score in this one.

Pick: Northwestern +24

Minnesota (-1) at Purdue, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

This game is tricky, with the status of Purdue's fifth-year senior quarterback Elijah Sindelar still up in the air, as he continues to deal with a concussion. If he plays, the edge goes to Purdue. If he doesn’t, you have to favor a gritty Minnesota team that has won three close games to start the season. Sindelar practiced before the TCU game two weeks ago but didn’t play, and we got burned when the Horned Frogs dominated. Let’s play with fire again and bet that Sindelar plays. I’m rolling the dice and taking Purdue at home.

Pick: Purdue +1

Indiana at #25 Michigan State (-13.5), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network

With Indiana’s blowout home loss to Ohio State, and Michigan State’s comfortable win last week against Northwestern, I’m surprised this spread is only two scores. The question is whether this Michigan State offense can muster enough offense to cover. Whether it’s redshirt freshman quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (who is a game-time decision) or redshirt junior Peyton Ramsey at quarterback for Indiana, this stout Michigan State defense should control the game.

Pick: Michigan State -13.5

Middle Tennessee at #14 Iowa (-23.5), Saturday, noon ET, ESPN2

Taking Iowa to blow out anyone, especially in a meaningless game against a bad Middle Tennessee team, is always dicey. But the Hawkeyes are coming into the game fresh off a bye, so I’m betting that Iowa dominates from start to finish and wins by just enough to cover.

Pick: Iowa -23.5

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